未确知测度模型在南堡H断块油层潜力评价中的应用  

Application of unascertained measure model in reservoir potential evaluation of Nanpu H Fault Block

作　　者：曲丽丽[1] 李明林[1] 伍志敏[1] 张林[1] 冯林平 邓丽萍 QU Lili;LI Minglin;WU Zhimin;ZHANG Lin;FENG Linping;DENG Liping(Nanpu Oilfield Operation Area of PetroChina Jidong Oilfield Company,Tangshan,Hebei 063200,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油冀东油田公司南堡油田作业区,河北唐山063200

出　　处：《油气藏评价与开发》2023年第2期190-199,共10页Petroleum Reservoir Evaluation and Development

摘　　要：如何准确评价当前油层潜力直接影响着开发中后期复杂断块注水油藏剩余油的挖潜工作。通过静态油藏地质特征与动态开发效果综合分析,确定了复杂断块油藏剩余油分布的主控因素,并利用基于未确知数学理论和属性测度理论的层次分析+未确知测度评价方法进行油层潜力评价。通过构建评价指标体系,建立精确的未确知测度函数,利用置信度识别准则判定评价空间,最终得到油层潜力评价结果。研究结果表明:利用层次分析+未确知测度综合评价油层潜力,建立了7个参数组成的评价体系并构建未确知测度函数,根据油藏潜力大小可将油层分为4类,其中,Ⅰ、Ⅱ类油层潜力较好,评价结果与数模结果相似,并通过现场实施验证评价结果的可靠性。How to accurately evaluate the current reservoir potential directly affects the potential tapping of remaining oil by water injection in complex fault block reservoirs during the middle and late stages of development.By the comprehensive analysis of static reservoir geological characteristics and dynamic development effects,the main control factors of residual oil distribution in complex fault block reservoirs are determined,and the reservoir potential is evaluated by the analytic hierarchy process combined with unascertained measure evaluation method based on unascertained mathematical theory and attribute measurement theory.An accurate unascertained measure function is established by building an evaluation index system,and by the confidence degree identification criteria to determine the evaluation space,the evaluation result of reservoir potential is finally obtained.The research results show that the reservoir potential is comprehensively evaluated by using the analytic hierarchy process and unascertained measurement,the evaluation system consisting of seven parameters is established and the unascertained measurement function is constructed.According to the reservoir potential,the reservoirs can be divided into four categories,of which categoryⅠand categoryⅡhave good potential.The evaluation results are similar to the numerical simulation results,and the reliability of the evaluation results is verified by the on-site implementation.

关 键 词：动静结合 剩余油 层次分析法 未确知测度 油层潜力评价 

分 类 号：TE357[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]