RCEP生效与中日韩敏感产业合作  

RCEP Coming into Effect and the Cooperation of China-Japan-ROK Sensitive Industries

作　　者：张晓静[1] 涂佳佳 ZHANG Xiaojing;TU Jiajia(Academy of China Open Economy Studies,University of International Business and Economics,Beijing,100029)

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国家对外开放研究院,北京100029

出　　处：《东北亚经济研究》2023年第2期34-47,共14页Northeast Asia Economic Research

基　　金：国家社科基金“‘双循环’新格局下‘一带一路’高质量发展的长效机制与实现路径研究”(21BGJ035)。

摘　　要：在总结RCEP有关敏感产业的制度规则基础上,文章运用全球贸易分析模型(GTAP)模拟分析了在RCEP框架下构建中日韩FTA对中日韩敏感产业合作可能产生的影响,并提出相应的政策建议。结果表明,在RCEP框架下构建中日韩FTA,会给中日韩三国带来更大的经济贸易效应,也会进一步扩大对中日韩三国敏感产业发展的影响。敏感产业方面,中国农业、渔业产出规模将进一步扩大,敏感产业进出口增加额要大于日本和韩国,但要更加关注中国林业和中高端制造业的产出规模。因此,我国应抓住机遇,借鉴RCEP敏感产业谈判经验,促进敏感产业跨境区域合作,突破中日韩FTA的谈判障碍。On the basis of summarizing the institutional rules related to sensitive industries in RCEP,this paper analyzes the possible impact of the establishment of China-Japan-ROK FTA under the framework of RCEP on China-Japan-ROK sensitive industrial cooperation with the Global Trade Analysis Model(GTAP)in a simulative way,and puts forward corresponding suggestions.The research results show that the building of China-Japan-ROK FTA will bring greater economic and trade effects to the three countries,and further promote the development of sensitive industries in China,Japan and South Korea under the framework of RCEP.In terms of sensitive industries,the output scale of agriculture and fishery in China will be further expanded,and the increase in imports and exports of sensitive industries will be greater than that of Japan and South Korea,but more attention should be paid to the output scale of China's forestry and medium-high end manufacturing.Therefore,we should seize the opportunity to learn from RCEP's experience in negotiations on sensitive industries,boost cross-border regional cooperation in sensitive industries,and break through the barriers in negotiations of ChinaJapan-ROK FTA.

关 键 词：敏感产业 关税减让 RCEP 中日韩FTA GTAP 

分 类 号：F117[经济管理—国际贸易]