基于TOPSIS和贝叶斯网络的液体化工码头设备安全风险评价模型研究  

A risk evaluation model for facilities of liquid chemical terminal based on TOPSIS and Bayesian network

作　　者：邓健[1,2,3] 杨港 孙浩[1] 胡玉昌[4] 廖芳达 DENG Jian;YANG Gang;SUN Hao;HU Yuchang;LIAO Fangda(School of Navigation,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,China;Hubei Key Laboratory of Inland Shipping Technology,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,China;National Engineering Research Center for Water Transport Safety,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,China;China Waterborne Transport Research Institute,Beijing 100088,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学航运学院,湖北武汉430063 [2]武汉理工大学内河航运技术湖北省重点实验室,湖北武汉430063 [3]武汉理工大学国家水运安全工程技术研究中心,湖北武汉430063 [4]交通运输部水运科学研究院,北京100088

出　　处：《中国航海》2023年第1期73-79,87,共8页Navigation of China

基　　金：国家自然科学重点基金项目(52031009)。

摘　　要：液体化工码头设备安全对码头作业安全至关重要,为有效评估化工码头设备安全风险,提出了一种基于逼近理想解排序法(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution, TOPSIS)和贝叶斯网络的安全风险评估方法。运用TOPSIS方法从24个指标中筛选出16个重要指标,构建了液体化工码头设备安全风险指标体系,基于贝叶斯网络方法建立设备安全风险评价拓扑结构,通过马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛算法完成贝叶斯网络节点概率推理过程,得到基于贝叶斯网络方法的液体化工码头设备安全风险评价模型。最后以长江干线某化工码头为研究对象开展风险评价,结果表明该码头设备整体风险等级为较低,4个设备子系统的风险概率从高到低的次序为管道设备、储存设备、机械设备和安全防护设备,管道设备风险等级相对较高,码头应针对管道设备做好风险管控措施。TOPSIS and Bayesian network is introduced to the risk evaluation model for facilities of liquid chemical terminals.TOPSIS is used to screen the candidate risk indexes and 16 major indexes are identified to form the risk evaluation index system.The topography of the evaluation model is designed based on Bayesian network.The probabilistic inference concerning the nodes are fulflled by Markov chain-Monte Carlo algorithm.The completed model is used,as an example,to evaluate the risks that a liquid chemical terminal at the Yangtze trunk line involves.The evaluation indicates that the risk level for the facilities is relatively low.The risk levels for facility subsystems are ranked as pipe system,storage facility,mechanical equipment and safety and protection equipment in descending order.

关 键 词：液体化工码头 设备安全 风险评价 TOPSIS 贝叶斯网络 

分 类 号：U653[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]