货币政策边界研究——基于多元主体的货币政策思想实验  

Research on Monetary Policy Boundary——A Monetary Policy Thought Experiment Based on Multiple Subjects

作　　者：万阿俊[1] 李连发[2] WAN A-juni;LI Lian-fa(The ShangHai Head Office,PBOC,200120;School of Economics,Peking University,100871)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行上海总部,200120 [2]北京大学经济学院,100871

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2023年第2期87-103,共17页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(批准号:71373011)阶段性成果之一。

摘　　要：围绕党的二十大确立的建设现代中央银行制度工作任务,一项重要工作是要完善货币政策体系,健全基础货币投放机制和货币供应调控机制。而这项工作的前提是要对货币政策边界有一个清晰的认知。为此,本文在理论上对货币政策有效性边界展开了研究。结论是:货币资本与其他生产要素(例如劳动力等)的结构问题是货币政策有效性的重要边界条件。当货币资本或者流动性相对过剩时,不同货币政策调控方式与央行“无为而治”状态没有明显区别,甚至某些时候更差;而当条件相反时,货币政策可以发挥作用。因此,货币政策执行不应只是局限在简化的政策目标本身,而应由“目标导向”向“政策边界导向”转向。本文的主要意义在于提供有关政策边界问题的思想实验,同时,本文也对现实边界问题进行了简单的说明。According to the task of establishing modern central bank system in the Party’s 20th National Congress,an important work is to optimize the monetary policy system,improve fundamental money supply mechanism and regulation mechanism.This work requires a clear understanding of the boundary of monetary policy.Therefore,this paper studies the effective boundary of monetary policy in theory.Conclusion is:the structure of money capital and other factors of production(such as labor)is an important boundary condition for the effectiveness of monetary policy.When monetary capital is relatively excess,there is no obvious difference between different ways of monetary policy regulation and the state of“doing nothing”,even worse in some cases.But when conditions are reversed,monetary policy can work.Therefore,monetary policy implementation should not be limited to the simplified policy aim,but should shift from“aim oriented”to“policy-boundary oriented”.The main significance of this paper is to provide a thought experiment on the problem of policy boundary.At the same time,we also present a brief description of the real boundaries.

关 键 词：货币政策 边界 基于主体模型 数量调控 价格调控 

分 类 号：F820[经济管理—财政学]