2005-2021年荆州市肾综合征出血热发病率的贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列分析  

Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis of the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Jingzhou from 2005 to 2021

作　　者：刘天[1] 吴杨[2] 童叶青[2] 黄继贵[1] 阮德欣 侯清波[1] 姚梦雷[1] 陈红缨[2] LIU Tian;WU Yang;TONG Ye-qing;HUANG Ji-gui;RUAN De-xin;HOU Qing-bo;YAO Meng-lei;CHEN Hong-ying(Department for Infectious Disease Control and Prevention,Jingzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jingzhou 434000,China;Hubei Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Wuhan 430079,China)

机构地区：[1]荆州市疾病预防控制中心传染病防治所,荆州434000 [2]湖北省疾病预防控制中心,武汉430079

出　　处：《中国人兽共患病学报》2023年第3期253-257,共5页Chinese Journal of Zoonoses

基　　金：湖北省卫生计生委2018年联合基金项目(No.WJ2018H256)。

摘　　要：目的分析2005-2021年荆州市肾综合征出血热(HFRS)病例的年龄、时期和出生队列特征。方法自传染病监测系统收集2005-2021年荆州市HFRS发病率数据。采用描述性流行病学方法描述HFRS病例的时期、年龄分布特点。采用Spearman等级相关分析HFRS变化趋势。采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列分析分析HFRS发病率的年龄、时期和出生队列效应。所有分析均比较不同性别差异。结果2005-2021年荆州市累计报告HFRS 1407例,年均发病率为1.43/10万。2005-2021年荆州市HFRS发病率总体呈上升趋势(r_(s)=0.94,P=0.000)。相较于2013年,2016年后发病风险均有统计学意义(RR>1,P<0.05)。年龄分布呈倒“V”型,发病高峰出现在60~64岁(4.22/10万)、65~69岁年龄组(4.12/10万)。60~64岁年龄组相较45~49岁年龄组发病风险高(RR=1.63,95%CI:1.07~2.26)。14岁及以下人群随时期构成比在0.00%~6.90%波动,发病率在0.00~0.37/10万波动;60岁及以上人群年均发病率为3.12/10万,构成比为32.62%,构成比随年份呈波动上升趋势,由2005年的13.04%上升至2021年的40.87%。不同性别时期、队列效应一致;男性(4.55/10万)发病率高于女性(1.84/10万),女性60岁及以上HFRS病例构成比(39.39%)高于男性(30.27%)。结论荆州市HFRS疫情呈高发态势,存在明显年龄、时期和出生队列特征。高发年龄以60岁以上为主,需加快该人群HFRS疫苗研发,以保护该人群。This study analyzed the age,period,and birth cohort characteristics of cases of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS)in Jingzhou from 2005 to 2021.HFRS incidence data in Jingzhou City from 2005 to 2021 were collected from the infectious disease surveillance system.Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to describe the period and age distribution of HFRS cases.Spearman’s rank correlation was used to analyze trends in HFRS.A Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis was used to analyze the age,period,and birth cohort effects of HFRS incidence.All analyses compared sex differences.From 2005 to 2021,a total of 1407 cases of HFRS were reported in Jingzhou,and the average annual incidence rate was 1.43/100000.From 2005 to 2021,the incidence of HFRS in Jingzhou showed an overall increasing trend(r_(s)=0.94,P=0.000).With respect to 2013,the relative risk after 2016 was significantly greater(RR>1,P<0.05).The age distribution showed an inverted"V"shape,and the peak incidence occurred in the age groups of 60-64 years(4.22/100000)and 65-69 years(4.12/100000).Ages 60-64 had the highest risk with respect to that of ages 45-49(RR=1.63,95%CI:1.07-2.26).Overtime,the proportion of cases in people 14 years of age and younger fluctuated from 0.00%to 6.90%,and the incidence rate fluctuated from 0.00 to 0.37/100000.The average annual incidence rate among people 60 years of age or older was 3.12/100000,accounting for 32.62%.The proportion showed a fluctuating upward trend over time,rising from 13.04%in 2005 to 40.87%in 2021.Males and females showed the same period and cohort effects,but differences were observed in age effects.The incidence rate in males(4.55/100000)was higher than that in females(1.84/100000),and the proportion of HFRS cases in females 60 years of age or older(39.39%)was higher than that in males(30.27%).This study indicated that Jingzhou City has a high incidence of HFRS,which shows clear age,period and birth cohort characteristics.The highest age of onset was above 60 years of age.HFRS vaccine research and

关 键 词：肾综合征出血热 年龄 出生队列 老年人 年龄-时期-队列分析 

分 类 号：R512.8[医药卫生—内科学]