道路网络路段韧性重要度的EFAST评价方法  

An EFAST-based evaluation method for resilience importance of road-network links

作　　者：何祥 袁永博 周方 汤旸 HE Xiang;YUAN Yong-bo;ZHOU Fang;TANG Yang(Faculty of Infrastructure Engineering,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,Liaoning,China;College of Information and Management Science,Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou 450002,China)

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学建设工程学部,辽宁大连116024 [2]河南农业大学信息与管理科学学院,郑州450002

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2023年第3期675-681,共7页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：河南省高校人文社会科学研究一般项目(2021-ZZJH-158)。

摘　　要：识别韧性重要路段有助于通过局部路段改造措施提升路网的整体韧性水平。将路网韧性评估模型集成至扩展傅里叶振幅灵敏度检验方法(Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test,EFAST),提出了一个通用的路段韧性重要度评估框架。路网的韧性水平取决于各路段抵御、吸收故障及从故障中恢复的能力。该框架能够分离各路段的上述韧性能力对路网韧性的影响,据此评价各路段基于不同韧性能力的重要程度。算例试验表明:路段韧性能力的波动能够显著改变路网的韧性水平,各路段不同韧性能力对此变化的影响具有非均衡性;韧性能力的影响力随修复进程发生变化,忽视其交互效应可能低估路段的重要程度。基于识别结果的路段改造措施被证实能够更高效地提升路网的韧性水平。Retrofitting resilient-critical road links helps to improve the overall resilience of a road network under various hazards,which necessitates the identification of these links first.By integrating the resilience evaluation model of road-network into a global sensitivity analysis method,the Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test(EFAST),this study established a universal method to evaluate the resilience importance of the links.The model simulated the operation of the road network at the normal and failure states using the traffic assignment models of stochastic user equilibrium and the system optimization with elastic demand and congestion respectively and evaluated the resilience with the functionality over time from the failure occurrence to the restoration accomplishment.Three resilience capabilities,i.e.,the ones to withstand,absorb,and recover from exceptional conditions,of each link determined its traffic capacity,and whose simultaneous variations in the respective space resulted in fluctuations of the resilience metric.The EFAST decomposed the contribution of each of the capabilities for each link to this fluctuation,i.e.,the sensitivity index,and evaluated the importance of each link according to this index of each type of the capability.The critical links are those whose small changes in some of the capabilities can significantly influence the road-network resilience level.A numerical case study on a benchmark road network tested the practicability of this method.The result revealed that the change of the resilience capabilities can result in non-negligible variations in the road-network resilience.This variation can be dominated by a few of the capabilities for a small portion of the links and,to a certain extent,result from the interaction of the capabilities.The effects of the withstanding and absorptive capabilities decrease as the restoration progresses,while that of the recovery capability can be significant throughout the process,especially in the later period.The retrofit strategies of resili

关 键 词：安全系统工程 路网韧性 不确定性 重要度 交通流模拟 全局灵敏度 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]