叶尔羌流域极端气候变化特征及其对径流的影响研究  

Study on Variation Characteristics of Extreme Climate and Its Impacts on Runoff in Yarkant Basin

作　　者：宋轩宇 许民 李振中 杨成德 SONG Xuanyu;XU Min;LI Zhenzhong;YANG Chengde(School of mathematics,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China;State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Science,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学数理学院,甘肃兰州730070 [2]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《水文》2023年第2期52-57,共6页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41971094);中国科学院-澳大利亚联邦科学和工业研究组织(CAS-CSIRO)国际合作项目(131B62KYSB20190042);中国科学院青年创新促会员项目(2019414)。

摘　　要：基于1954—2015年叶尔羌流域的气温、降水和径流数据,采用M-K突变检验、距平、趋势分析、Hill估计方法揭示了影响流域水文过程的气候指标,采用主成分回归分析方法探讨了极端气候与极端水文事件之间的关系。结果表明:(1)叶尔羌河流域年平均气温、降水均呈显著上升趋势;年平均气温突变时间为1998年,年平均降水不存在突变。(2)流域径流量、极端径流量呈上升趋势,其中径流量变化显著,极端径流的阈值为148.3 mm,64年间共计发生18次极端径流事件。(3)流域极端降水对径流以及极端径流的变化影响较大,极端气温影响次之。Based on the temperature,precipitation and runoff data in the Yarkant Basin from 1954 to 2015,this paper used MK mutation test,departure,trend analysis and Hill estimation method to reveal the climate indicators that affect the hydrological process of the basin.The relationship between extreme climate and extreme hydrological events was studied by using the principal component regression analysis method.The results showed that:(1)The annual average temperature and precipitation in the Yar⁃kant river basin both showed a significant upward trend;The mutation time of annual average temperature was 1998,and there was no mutation in annual average precipitation.(2)The volume of runoff in the basin showed a significant upward trend,and the threshold of extreme runoff was 148.3mm.18 extreme runoff events occurred in 64 years.(3)Extreme precipitation had a greater impact on the runoff and the change of extreme runoff,followed by the extreme temperature.

关 键 词：叶尔羌河流域 极端水文事件 极端温度和降水 主成分回归 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]