珠江流域感潮河段洪潮遭遇联合风险分析  

Joint Risk Analysis of Flood and Tide in Tidal Reach of Pearl River Basin

作　　者：许伟 刘培 黄鹏飞 林中源 吴尧 XU Wei;LIU Pei;HUANG Pengfei;LIN Zhongyuan;WU Yao(Department of River and Coastal of the Pearl River Hydraulic Research Institute,Guangzhou 510000,China)

机构地区：[1]珠江水利科学研究院,广东广州510630

出　　处：《水文》2023年第2期110-114,共5页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(42006157);水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室“一带一路”水与可持续发展科技基金项目(2020492111)。

摘　　要：在防洪潮规划中洪潮遭遇分析尤为重要。以西、北江三角洲作为珠江流域感潮区域的典型区,运用Archimedean Copula函数构建了年最大洪水和相应48h内最大潮位、年最大潮位和相应48h内最大洪水两组联合分布,通过联合风险概率模型,计算了洪潮组合的风险概率。结果表明:较高重现期洪水遭遇较低重现期的潮位、较高重现期潮位遭遇较低重现期的洪水风险概率会更大。基于Copula函数的洪潮联合分布拟合较好,组合风险分析可靠,为珠江流域感潮河段防洪、潮工程的设计风险计算提供理论参考。The analysis of flood and tide encounter is particularly important in flood and tide prevention planning.Taking the Northwest River Delta as a typical tidal region of the Pearl River Basin,this paper applied the Archimedean Copula function to construct the joint distributions of the annual maximum flood and the corresponding maximum tide within 48 hours together with the maximum annual tide and the corresponding maximum flood within 48 hours.Through the joint risk probability model,the joint risk probability of floods encountering tides was calculated.The results show that:there will be a greater risk probability that the flood with a higher return period encounters the tide with a lower return period,and the tide with a higher return peri⁃od encounters the flood with a lower return period.The joint distribution of flood and tide based on the Copula function fits well,and the combined risk analysis is reliable.It provides a theoretical reference for the design risk calculation of the flood con⁃trol project in the tidal reach of the Pearl River Basin.

关 键 词：珠江流域 COPULA函数 洪潮遭遇 联合分布 风险分析 

分 类 号：TV211.2[水利工程—水文学及水资源]