冬奥核心区华北落叶松和白桦单木冠幅预测模型——组级贝叶斯模型、加性模型和混合效应模型比较  

Comparison of Single Tree Crown Prediction Models of Larix principis-rupprechtii and Betula platyphylla in the Core Area of the Winter Olympics in China

作　　者：张晓芳 郭旭展 洪亮[1,2,4] 陈涛 符利勇 张会儒[1,2,5] Zhang Xiaofang;Guo Xuzhan;Hong Liang;Chen Tao;Fu Liyong;Zhang Huiru(Research Institule of Forest Resource Information Techniques,CAF Beijing 100091;Key Laboratory of Forest Management and Growth Modeling,National Forestry and Grassland Administration Beijing 100091;College of Computer and Information Technology,Xinyang Normal University Xinyang 464000;College of Mathematics and Statistics,Xinyang Normal University Xinyang 464000;Experimental Center of Forestry in North China,CAF Beijing 102300;Forestry and Grassland Bureau of Chongli District,Zhangjiakou City,Hebei Province Zhangjiakou 075000)

机构地区：[1]中国林业科学研究院资源信息研究所,北京100091 [2]国家林业和草原局森林经营与生长模拟重点实验室,北京100091 [3]信阳师范学院计算机与信息技术学院,信阳464000 [4]信阳师范学院数学与统计学院,信阳464000 [5]中国林业科学研究院华北林业实验中心,北京102300 [6]河北省张家口市崇礼区林业和草原局,张家口075000

出　　处：《林业科学》2022年第10期89-100,共12页Scientia Silvae Sinicae

基　　金：张家口市崇礼区森林防火综合体系建设无人机巡护监测系统(DA2020001);国家自然科学基金面上项目(31971653)。

摘　　要：【目的】构建冬奥核心区华北落叶松和白桦单木冠幅预测模型,对比不同模型的优缺点,给出模型选择建议,为获取更多的单木和林分参数提供支撑,为华北落叶松和白桦科学经营决策提供理论依据。【方法】以冬奥核心区4 537株华北落叶松和2 603株白桦为研究对象,首先,选取10种常用冠幅-胸径模型作为备选模型分别拟合华北落叶松和白桦数据,从中选出AIC和BIC最小的模型作为基础模型;然后,在基础模型中进一步添加与冠幅相关系数大的变量作为协变量构建修正模型;最后,在修正模型基础上分别构建华北落叶松和白桦冠幅的非线性最小二乘模型、单水平非线性混合效应模型、加性模型和组级贝叶斯模型。【结果】4种华北落叶松冠幅模型中,加性模型的预测精度最高(R^(2)_mean=0.704 3,RMSE_mean=0.512 7),4种白桦冠幅模型中,非线性混合效应模型的预测精度最高(R^(2)_mean=0.664 3,RMSE_mean=0.794 4)。在变量方面,华北落叶松和白桦冠幅均随其胸径递增,华北落叶松冠幅随其树高缓慢递增、枝下高递减,白桦冠幅随其冠长率先减小后增大,并受林分密度影响波动较大,当林分密度为600~800 hm-2时,白桦冠幅随林分密度递减,此时应进行适当补植;当林分密度为800~1 000 hm-2时,白桦冠幅随林分密度递增,并在1 000 hm-2时出现拐点,如果经营目的是为了环境保护,可将林分密度控制在1 000 hm-2左右;当林分密度为1 000~1 200 hm-2时,白桦冠幅随林分密度递减,此时可对林分进行抚育间伐调整林分密度。【结论】冬奥核心区华北落叶松冠幅受胸径、树高和枝下高影响较大,白桦冠幅受胸径、冠长率和林分密度影响较大。无论是预测华北落叶松还是白桦冠幅,组级贝叶斯模型、加性模型和非线性混合效应模型效果均优于非线性最小二乘模型,在仅添加样地随机效应的情况下,首选加性模型和非线性混合效�【Objective】This study was implemented to construct a high-accuracy model of single-wood crowns of Larix principis-rupprechtii and Betula platyphylla in the core area of the Winter Olympics,and to compare the advantages and disadvantages of different models to provide theoretical supports for scientific management decisions.【Method】We took 4537 L.principis-rupprechtii trees and 2603 B.platyphylla trees in the core area of the Winter Olympics as the research objects.Firstly,we fitted our data with 10 commonly used crown diameter models,and then selected the best performance model as the basic model for L.principis-rupprechtii and B.platyphylla,respectively.Secondly,other variables were further added as covariates to construct an improved model based on the basic model.Finally,on the basis of the improved model,the nonlinear least squares model,single-level mixed effects model,generalized additive model and group-level Bayesian model of L.principis-rupprechtii and B.platyphylla were constructed,respectively.【Result】Among the 4 L.principis-rupprechtii crown models,the additive model had the highest prediction accuracy(R^(2)_mean=0.7043,RMSE_mean=0.5127),and the mixed effect model among the 4 B.platyphylla crown models had the highest prediction accuracy(R^(2)_mean=0.6643,RMSE_mean=0.7944).In terms of variables,the crown width of L.principis-rupprechtii and B.platyphylla both increased with the growth of the diameter at breast height.However,the crown width of L.principis-rupprechtii slowly increased with the height of the tree,and decreased with the height to crown base.The B.platyphylla crown width first decreased and then increased with the crown length ratio increasing,on the other hand,the B.platyphylla crown width fluctuated greatly under the change of stand density.When the stand density ranged from 600 to 800 hm-2,the B.platyphylla crown width decreased with larger stand density,and appropriate replanting should be carried out at this time.When the stand density was in the range of 800 to 1000 hm-2

关 键 词：华北落叶松冠幅预测模型 白桦冠幅预测模型 非线性混合效应模型 组级贝叶斯模型 加性模型 冬奥核心区 

分 类 号：S758[农业科学—森林经理学]