赤峰地震台定点形变2021年短期大幅变化分析  

Analysis of large changes in short-time of fixed-point deformation of Chifeng Seismic Station in 2021

作　　者：杨红樱[1] 于章棣 黄瑞滨 齐彬彬 裴东洋 王磊[1] YANG Hongying;YU Zhangdi;HUANG Ruibin;QI Binbin;PEI Dongyang;WANG Lei(Earthquake Agency of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,Hohhot 010010,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古自治区地震局,呼和浩特010010

出　　处：《地震地磁观测与研究》2022年第6期159-165,共7页Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research

基　　金：中国地震局震情跟踪定向工作任务(项目编号:2021010217);内蒙古自治区地震局局长基金课题(项目编号:2022YB19)。

摘　　要：2021年6月,赤峰地震台洞体应变和水管倾斜定点形变出现短期大幅变化现象,选取2017—2021年观测数据进行跟踪分析,发现2017年以来,该台定点形变观测曲线多次出现短时大幅变化现象,对变化因素进行归纳总结,使用年变形态、载荷和速率变化分析方法,剔除观测数据干扰因素,判定2021年6月数据变化为前兆异常。结合震例进行预测效能检验,认为该台定点形变短期大幅异常变化,对未来100天内台站周边600 km范围内4.5级及以上地震的发生具有一定指示意义。The fixed-point deformation data of Chifeng Seismic Station has experienced short-term large variationin June 2021.The observation data from 2017 to 2021 were selected for tracking analysis,and it was found that the fixed-point deformation observation curve of the station had shown large short-term changes for many times since 2017.The changing factors were summarized.Using the analysis method of annual morphology,load and rate changes,the interference factors of observation data were eliminated,and the data changes in June 2021 were determined as precursor anomalies.Based on the prediction efficiency test of the earthquake cases,it is concluded that the large short-term abnormal changes of the fixed point deformation of the station have certain indicative significance for the occurrence of earthquakes with magnitude 4.5 or above within 600 km around the station in the next 100 days.

关 键 词：洞体应变 水管倾斜 场地环境 异常判别 短期大幅变化 

分 类 号：P315.78[天文地球—地震学]