和林短时强降水雷达客观识别方法研究  

Research on Objective Identification Method of Short-term Heavy Precipitation Based on Radar in Horinger

作　　者：许晶[1] 孔文甲 刘诗韵 全宇[1] 赵斐 张连霞 刘明月 李林惠 项飞录[1] XU Jing;KONG Wenjia;LIU Shiyun;QUAN YU;ZHAO Fei;ZHANG Lianxia;LIU Mingyue;LI Linhui;XIANG Feilu(Ordos Meteorological Bureau,Ordos 017010,China;Inner Mongolia Meteorological Bureau,Hohhot 010051,China)

机构地区：[1]鄂尔多斯市气象局,内蒙古鄂尔多斯017010 [2]内蒙古气象局,内蒙古呼和浩特010051

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2023年第2期114-119,共6页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(42030604);鄂尔多斯市科技重大专项(2022EEDSKJZDZX016);内蒙古自治区气象局科技创新项目(nmqxjcx202201、nmqxjcx202210);内蒙古自治区气象局引导性创新基金项目(nmqxydcx202213);内蒙古自治区自然科学基金项目(2022MS04021)。

摘　　要：分析了2004—2021年6—8月和林地区31次短时强降水雷达回波特征,结果表明:雷达回波中普通单体型3次,多单体型15次,线性风暴(飑线)型5次,超级单体型8次,多单体型最多,48.4%。在雷达回波强度廓线中,Z(近地面1 km回波强度)分布比较均匀,以中位数为中心,均匀向两端分布,Zmax、ET、TOP、VIL、VILD分布较不均匀,均呈右偏,其中VIL、VILD分布右偏严重;Z、TOP、VIL、VILD分布呈单峰状,Zmax分布呈双峰状,ET分布呈多峰状。在雷达回波强度廓线特征量小提琴图形分析基础上,采用25%分位数作为雷达识别短时强降水参数阈值,选出阈值为:Zmax>25.4 dBZ,Z>22 dBZ,ET>5 km,TOP>3.8 km,VIL>0.2 kg·m-2,VILD>0.05 g·m-3,阈值总体上低于我国中东部地区。应用2009年和2017年6—8月样本进行检验,和林地区小时雨强R≥10 mm/h及4.9 mm/h≤R<10 mm/h预报命中率、空报率明显高于一般性降水(1 mm/h≤R<4.9 mm/h),漏报率明显低于一般性降水,2009和2017年短时强降水逐小时TS评分为0.02和0.04,一般性降水逐小时TS评分为0.24和0.31。This paper statistically analyzes the characteristics of 31 short-term heavy precipitation radar echo images in Horinger area from June to August during 2004-2021.It shows that:(1)There are3 normal cell,15 multi-cell,5 linear storm(squall line)and8 super cell in the radar echoes.The multi-cell type has the relatively highest occurance frequency,accounting for 48.4%.(2)Echo intensity distribution near the ground1 km is relatively uniform,and evenly distributes to both ends with the median as the center Z max,ET,TOP,VIL and VILD are unevenly distributed,which are right biased.The distribution of VIL and VILD is seriously right biased.The distribution of Z,TOP,VIL and VILD is unimodal,the distribution of Zmax is bimodal,and the distribution of ET is multimoda.(3)On the basis of the violin graph analysis of the characteristics of the radar echo intensity profile,the 25%quantile is used as the threshold for the radar identification of short-term heavy precipitation parameters,and the selected thresholds are as follows:Zmax>25.4 dBZ,Z>22 dBZ,ET>5 km,TOP>3.8 km,VIL>0.2 kg·m-2,VILD>0.05g·m-3.The thresholds are generally lower than that in the central and eastern China.(4)Testing the samples from June to August in 2009 and 2017,forecast hit rate and air alarm rate of the hourly rainfall intensity(R≥10 mm/h and 4.9 mm/h≤R<10 mm/h)are significantly higher than that of general precipitation(1 mm/h≤R<4.9 mm/h)in Helin,and the omission rate is significantly lower than that of general precipitation.In 2009 and 2017,hourly TS of short-term heavy precipitation were 0.02 and 0.04,and hourly TS scores of general precipitation were 0.24 and 0.31 respectively.

关 键 词：短时强降水 客观方法 识别阈值 

分 类 号：P458.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]