老龄化和自动化对代际资产分配与总消费的影响——基于生命周期模型的分析  

How Aging and Automation Affect Intergenerational Asset Allocation and Aggregate Consumption--A Life Cycle Model-Based Analysis

作　　者：张耀军[1,2,3] 张睿勍 ZHANG Yao-jun;ZHANG Rui-qing

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学应用经济学院 [2]中国人民大学国家发展战略研究院 [3]中国人民大学首都发展研究院 [4]中国人民大学社会与人口学院

出　　处：《产经评论》2023年第1期148-160,共13页Industrial Economic Review

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务专项基金项目“主体功能区规划背景下人口有序流动合理分布研究”(项目编号:12XNI002,项目负责人:张耀军)。

摘　　要：老龄化和自动化对中国经济社会的影响全面而深远,对代际资产分配与总消费的复杂作用有待进一步探讨。理论分析表明:老龄人口抚养比越高,退休者资产占比越高;利率越高,退休者资产占比越高,边际消费倾向越高,总消费越高。利用数值模拟方法探究中国宏观经济现状发现,自动化程度提高会降低当前的利率水平,带来退休者资产占比与边际消费倾向的下降,降低工资率并拉低总消费水平。相比对退休者资产占比的影响,自动化带来的边际消费倾向下降对中国经济未来的影响可能更为明显。由此提出,未来应继续完善养老及相关福利保障制度,使普通劳动者形成“老有所养”的预期。Aging and automation have important implications for the future intergenerational asset distribution and aggregate consumption in China.Theoretical mechanism analysis shows that the higher the dependency ratio of the aging population,the higher the share of assets owned by retirees.The higher the interest rate,the higher the share of assets owned by retirees,the higher the marginal propensity to consume,and the higher the total consumption.Further investigation of the current macroeconomic situation in China using numerical simulations reveals that higher automation reduces the current interest rate level,bringing down the asset share of retirees and the marginal propensity to consume,lowering the wage rate and lowering the total consumption level of the economy.The future impact of automation on China's economy is likely to be more pronounced than the impact on the asset share of retirees,with the decline in marginal propensity to consume.In the future,we should continue to improve the pension and related welfare system so that the average worker can develop the expectation of“old age”.

关 键 词：老龄化 自动化 资产分配 生命周期模型 边际消费倾向 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F124.7