改良Verhulst模型在泥岩路基沉降预测中的应用  

Application of modified Verhulst model in settlement prediction of mudstone subgrade

作　　者：王芳 刘思源 刘凯 闫禹佳 陈桂林 WANG Fang;LIU Siyuan;LIU Kai;YAN Yujia;CHEN Guilin(School of Civil Engineering,Anhui Jianzhu University,Hefei 230601,China;School of Automotive and Transportation Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;Anhui Sijian Holding Group Co.,Ltd.,Hefei 230088,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽建筑大学土木工程学院,安徽合肥230601 [2]合肥工业大学汽车与交通工程学院,安徽合肥230009 [3]安徽四建控股集团有限公司,安徽合肥230088

出　　处：《广西大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第1期79-89,共11页Journal of Guangxi University（Natural Science Edition）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52078177)。

摘　　要：为了准确预测泥岩高速公路路基不同填筑阶段的沉降数据,避免长期监测带来的不便,提出了5个改良Verhulst模型:分别利用元胞自动机和矩形法以及积分法改良传统Verhulst模型背景值,建立了元胞自动机改良模型、矩形法模型和积分法模型;在此基础上,利用元胞自动机理论优化矩形法模型和积分法模型的背景值,建立了综合改良模型1、2。以马巢高速公路泥岩路基沉降数据为基础,采用传统Verhulst模型和5个改良Verhulst模型预测路基在不同填筑阶段的沉降。结果表明:5个改良模型中,2种综合改良模型精度最高,其次为元胞自动机改良模型和积分法模型,最后为矩形法模型,且预测精度均优于传统模型,能较好地预测不同风化程度泥岩路基在不同填筑阶段的沉降,符合工程要求。In order to accurately predict the settlement data in different filling stages and avoid the inconvenience of long-term monitoring,five improved Verhulst models are proposed:using the cellular automata and the traditional Verhulst model,improve the background value and the integrated improvement model 1 and 2.Based on the settlement data of mudstone subgrade of Machao Expressway,the traditional Verhulst model and 5 modified Verhulst model are adopted to predicts the settlement of the subgrade at different filling stages.The results show that among the five improved models,the two comprehensive improved models have the highest accuracy,followed by the cellular automata improved model and integral model,and finally the rectangular model,and the prediction accuracy is better than the traditional model,can better predict the settlement of different weathering degree mudstone subgrade in different filling stages,meet the engineering requirements.

关 键 词：改良Verhulst模型 泥岩路基 沉降预测 背景值优化 道路工程 

分 类 号：TU432[建筑科学—岩土工程]