信贷扩张与金融市场稳定——基于股价暴跌风险视角  

Credit Expansion and Financial Market Stability:A Perspective Based on the Risk of Stock Price Crashes

作　　者：李佳[1] 徐一博 Li Jia;Xu Yibo

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院

出　　处：《宏观经济研究》2023年第3期4-18,103,共16页Macroeconomics

摘　　要：中国多次使用以逆周期调控为主的信贷扩张来平滑社会信贷供给和维持金融市场稳定。本文以2008-2021年A股上市公司为样本,基于股价暴跌风险视角研究信贷扩张对金融市场稳定的影响。研究发现,信贷扩张有助于降低股价暴跌风险,且信贷扩张与宏观审慎政策“双支柱”调节作用能显著放大这种风险抑制作用。影响机制分析表明,信贷扩张能通过缓解企业融资约束、增加企业投资机会以及提高会计信息的稳健性来提高金融市场稳定性,且显著提高了企业债务融资水平。但信贷扩张仍存在潜在风险,一方面加强了高资产可抵押性企业的盈余管理动机,另一方面加剧了企业商业信用二次配置以及“脱实向虚”的程度。本文的研究结果对如何科学合理地通过信贷供给来实现资本市场微观层面稳金融提供了一定的决策建议。China has repeatedly used credit expansion based on countercyclical regulation to smooth social credit supply and maintain financial market stability.This paper examines the impact of credit expansion on financial market stability based on the risk of stock price crashes for a sample of A-share listed companies from 2008-2021.The study finds that credit expansion helps reduce the risk of stock price crashes,and the‘dual-pillar’regulation of credit expansion and macroprudential policy significantly amplifies this risk-suppressing effect.The analysis of the impact mechanism shows that credit expansion can improve financial market stability by alleviating corporate financingconstraints,increasing corporate investment opportunities and improving the robustness of accounting information,and significantly increasing the level of corporate debt financing.However,there are still potential risks that credit expansion strengthens the surplus management incentives of enterprises with high asset collateralization,and increases the secondary allocation of commercial credit and the degree of‘de-realization'.The results of this paper provide some suggestions on how to achieve financial stability at the micro level of capital markets through credit supply in a scientific and rational manner.

关 键 词：信贷扩张 股价暴跌风险 宏观审慎政策 微观传导机制 

分 类 号：F832.4[经济管理—金融学] F832.51