“一带一路”倡议、“五通”质量与沿线国家贸易包容性增长——基于动态面板数据的GMM检验  

‘The Belt and Road'Initiative,the Quality of the‘Five-connectivity'and Inclusive Trade Growth of Countries Along the Route:A GMM Test Based on Dynamic Panel Data

作　　者：刘璐 宋蕾 石岩[3] 王长义[1] Liu Lu;Song Lei;Shi Yan;Wang Changyi

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学国际经贸学院 [2]中国海洋大学经济学院 [3]山东财经大学法学院

出　　处：《宏观经济研究》2023年第3期117-127,共11页Macroeconomics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(批准号:22BJL113);山东省社科规划项目(批准号:22CGLJ22)的资助。

摘　　要：本文基于2003-2017年间包括中国在内的63个“一带一路”沿线国家间贸易数据,对“一带一路”沿线国家出口额、进口额、进出口总额的包容性增长状况进行了描述性分析,并从“五通”视角构建动态面板GMM模型对贸易包容性增长的影响因素进行了检验。研究发现:“一带一路”沿线国家间贸易差距逐渐缩小,其增长具有包容性;“一带一路”沿线国家出口额、进口额和进出口总额均存在绝对收敛、条件收敛和俱乐部收敛效应,呈现包容性增长态势;“五通”质量对贸易包容性增长存在重要影响,倡议发展成果惠及沿线各国,强力推动了各国贸易的包容性增长。研究成果为“一带一路”倡议的普惠性提供了经验支持,也为中国优化与“一带一路”沿线各国贸易关系、提升贸易效率提供了决策依据。Based on the trade data of 63 countries along‘the Belt and Road'from 2003 to 2017,this paper describes the inclusive growth of exports,imports,total imports and exports trade of the countries along‘the Belt and Road'.A descriptive analysis of the inclusive growth of exports,imports,total imports and exports trade of countries along‘the Belt and Road'is conducted,and a dynamic panel GMM model is constructed to examine the factors influencing the inclusive growth of trade from the perspective of‘Five-connectivity'.It is found that:the trade gap among countries along‘the Belt and Road'are slowly narrowing,and their growth is inclusive;there are absolute convergence,conditional convergence and club convergence effects on exports,imports,total imports and exports trade of countries along‘the Belt and Road',showing inclusive growth.The quality of the‘Five-connectivity'has an important impact on the inclusive growth of trade,and the development results of the initiative have benefited all countries along the route,strongly promoting the inclusive growth of trade in each country.The research results provide empirical support for the inclusiveness of‘the Belt and Road'Initiative,and also provide a basis for China to optimize trade relations with countries along‘the Belt and Road'and improve trade efficiency.

关 键 词：“一带一路”倡议 “五通” 包容性增长 GMM检验 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济] F746