中国现代化进程中的粮食安全政策选择  

The Choice of Food Security Policy in the Process of China's Modernization

作　　者：倪国华[1] 王赛男 Jin Yanhong Ni Guohua;Wang Sainan;Jin Yanhong

机构地区：[1]北京工商大学经济学院,北京100048 [2]美国罗格斯大学

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（社会主义经济理论与实践）》2022年第4期139-156,共18页THE SOCIALIST ECONOMY:THEORY AND PRACTICE

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(21ZDA055);北京市自然科学基金面上项目(9192006);国家自然科学基金面上项目(72073008)的资助。

摘　　要：本文构造了未来30年不同时期的粮食政策模拟实验体系,并构造了“粮食安全忧患指数”量化表征中国奔向现代化进程中全社会对粮食安全的“忧患程度”。模拟实验表明,无论在“2020-2025年”基期、“2030-2035年”基期还是在“2050-2055年”基期,如果不“忧患”粮食安全,就会导致粮食供给安心率下降到0.8以下,意味着中国会丧失在自身粮食安全体系中的主导权。然而,如果因过度担忧粮食安全而过分强调自给率,则会陷入粮食短缺和生态环境恶化的“忧患陷阱”,走向因为“忧患”所以更加“忧患”的恶性循环。即使用“安心率”替代自给率作为评价指标,过度“忧患”也会带来沉重的财政负担并降低社会总福利水平,这凸显精准把控“忧患程度”的重要性。One of the Two Centenary Goals(to build China into a modern socialist country that is prosperous,strong,democratic,culturally advanced,and harmonious by the centenary of the People's Republic of China(founded in 1949)has become the source of strength to unite the Chinese nation in the journey of national modernization.Even though the goal is gorgeous,Chinese society has not ignored the worries of difficulties in the process.In fact,China's sense of urgency on food security stems not only from the same strain of national survival wisdom,but also from the strategic threat faced by China's food security system itself.The huge population,limited water and soil resources,severe ecological pressure and complex international environment have always threatened the food security system in its modernization journey.Although the sense of urgency has become a consensus,the development experience at home and abroad shows that the sense of urgency by itself cannot guarantee a more secure food system,nor can it ensure the rationality of policies.Even sometimes excessive sense of urgency will lead to the failure of food security policy,forming a vicious circle of urgency sense because of excessive sense of urgency,which is called as urgency trap in this paper.The problem how to avoid the sense of urgency trap has aroused the common concern of policy makers and researchers.However,in order to avoid the urgency trap on the premise of ensuring the sense of urgency,it is necessary to quantify the sense of urgency itself and incorporate it into the decision-making process.How should the sense of urgency be quantified in a highly complex modern governance system,especially in a highly sensitive food security governance system?To what extent can the sense of urgency achieve the optimal macro-equilibrium results?Actually,there has been a lack of quantitative academic research to answer such questions.Based on the theoretical model deduction of the national food policy system,this paper constructs the concept of food security crisis inde

关 键 词：“忧患陷阱” 现代化进程 粮食安全 政策模拟 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]