中国经济韧性的时空格局演变及其影响因素  

Temporal and Spatial Evolution of China's Economic Resilience and Its Ifluencing Factors

作　　者：赵剑霆 谭晶荣[1] 陈林 Zhao Jianting;Tan Jingrong;Chen Lin

机构地区：[1]浙江工业大学经济学院

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（区域与城市经济）》2022年第1期50-61,共12页REGIONAL AND URBAN ECONOMY

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“中美贸易关系新形势下我国经济韧性与贸易高质量耦合联动的机理与实现路径研究”(No.20BJY198)。

摘　　要：本文基于客观权重赋值法,综合区域经济的抵御冲击能力、冲击恢复能力、适应新环境能力、区域经济路径创造能力,构建区域经济韧性指标体系,实证测算了2002-2017年中国31个省(区、市)的经济韧性,采用空间计量模型分析了中国区域经济韧性的结构性影响因素和区域性影响因素。结果表明,经济韧性在稳定区间内波动,经济韧性水平表现出东强西弱的东西部差异且差异正在缩小;行业平均上游度、行业中心强度、行业中心炳均表现出正向的空间溢出效应。以中国经济高质量发展为目标,应充分发挥上述因素对区域经济韧性的积极影响,大力发展上游产业、实体经济;发挥产业集聚效应,推动区域经济一体化建设。Based on the objective weight assignment method,the index system of regional economic resilience is constructed by integrating the ability to resist the shock,the ability to recover from the shock,the ability to adapt to the new environment,and the ability to create the path for regional economic development.This paper empirically measures the economic resilience of China's 31 provinces from 2002 to 2017,and uses a spatial econometric model to analyze the structural and regional factors of China's regional economic resilience.The results show that the economic resilience fluctuates in the stable range,and the level of economic resilience shows the difference between East China and the West China,but the gap is narrowing;industry average upstream degree,industrial center intensity and industrial center entropy all show positive spatial spillover effect.In order to achieve high-quality development of China's economy,we should give full play to the positive impact of the above factors on regional economic resilience,and vigorously develop upstream industries and real economy;give full play to the effect of industrial agglomeration and promote the construction of regional economic integration.

关 键 词：经济韧性 时空演化 影响因素 空间计量 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]