人口老龄化、再分配政策与经济增长——基于政治经济一般均衡分析  

Population Aging,Redistribution Policy and Economic Growth:Based on General Equilibrium Analysis of Political Economics

作　　者：景鹏[1] 吕有吉 王明璐 JING Peng;LV YouJi;WANG MingLu(Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130;Nankai University,Tianjin 300071)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学,四川成都611130 [2]南开大学,天津300071

出　　处：《财贸研究》2023年第3期1-14,共14页Finance and Trade Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“养老保险降费的经济效应及风险防范机制研究”(72004183);国家自然科学基金重点项目“新时代居民消费发展的驱动机制及政策研究”(72033007);中央高校基本科研业务费研究项目“多层次养老保险体系高质量发展的实现机制与政策集成研究”(JBK2304078)。

摘　　要：通过构建一个内生公共教育政策和养老保险政策的世代交叠模型,考察人口老龄化对再分配政策和经济增长的影响。研究发现,在着眼于当前世代福利的政治经济中,生育率下降将增强再分配政策调节力度并使其向老年人倾斜,同时促进经济增长;老年期存活概率上升的具体效应取决于物质资本产出弹性和老年人政治影响力,参数基准取值下将削弱再分配政策调节力度并使其向成年人倾斜,但有利于经济增长。在关注当前及未来所有世代福利的社会计划者经济中,生育率下降不影响再分配政策且促进经济增长,老年期存活概率上升将削弱再分配政策调节力度并抑制经济增长。相较于政治经济一般均衡结果,社会贴现因子越大,社会计划者经济中的再分配政策越偏向成年人、经济增长率越高。因此,政策决策视角和社会贴现因子是影响再分配政策调节和长期经济增长的重要因素。By constructing an overlapping generation model with endogenously determined public education policy and public pension policy,this paper examines the impacts of population aging on redistributive policies and economic growth.It is found that in political economics with a focus on the welfare of current generation,declining fertility rates strengthen the adjustment of redistribution policy,make them more favorable to the elderly,and promote economic growth.The specific effects of increasing life expectancy are determined by physical capital output elasticity and political influences of the elderly.Under the baseline parameters setting,increasing life expectancy weakens the intensity of redistribution policy,makes them more favorable to the younger adult,and fosters long-run economic growth.From the perspective of the social planner who cares about the welfare of all current and future generations,the decline in fertility rates does not affect the redistribution policy and promotes economic growth,while the increase in life expectancy weakens the intensity of redistribution policies regulation and suppresses economic growth.In contrast to the general equilibrium result of political economy,the larger the social discount factor is,the more the redistribution policy of the social planner economy is biased towards adults and the higher the economic growth rate is.Thus,the perspective of policy decision and social discount factor are important factors that affect the adjustment of redistribution policy and long-term economic growth.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 公共教育政策 养老保险政策 经济增长 

分 类 号：F840.67[经济管理—保险]