家庭财富代际转移视角下的婚配竞争与住房市场——来自中国286个地级市的经验证据  

Marriage Matching Competition and Housing Market from the Perspective of Intergenerational Transfer of Family Wealth:Empirical Evidence from 286 Prefecture-level Cities in China

作　　者：李斌[1] 郭明杰 张所地[1] 赵华平[1] Li Bin;Guo Mingjie;Zhang Suodi;Zhao Huaping

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学管理科学与工程学院,山西太原030031

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（统计与精算）》2022年第2期98-113,共16页STATISTICS AND ACTUARIAL SCIENCE

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(71904112);山西省哲学社会科学规(2020YY096);山西省高等学校教学改革创新项目重点项目(J2020143)。

摘　　要：能否揭示婚配竞争与住房市场的本质联系是把握市场运行规律、提高住房调控有效性、构建和谐社会的关键问题。首先,在世代交叠分析框架下利用贝尔曼方程分析法得到了婚配竞争与住房价格的关系模型;其次,以2005年至2017年中国286个地级市面板数据为基础,检验了婚配竞争对住房价格的影响机制及家庭财富代际转移、父母利他行为能力在其中的作用;最后,分别按地理区位和城市规模将286个城市划分为4类和5类,探讨了婚配竞争对住房价格作用的异质性。研究发现:一是婚配竞争加剧是房价上涨的重要驱动因素。二是婚配竞争影响住房价格的机制在于家庭财富代际转移所扮演的部分中介作用,而父母利他行为能力又负向调节了该中介效应的前半路径,正向调节了该中介效应的后半路径。三是婚配竞争对住房价格的影响会随地理区位、城市规模的不同而呈现异质性特征。研究结论对于住房调控政策制定、扭转“婚房竞争”为“素质竞争”、适婚群体实现“美好生活”“安居梦”等都具有重要的理论和现实意义。Whether it is possible to reveal the essential connection between the marriage matching competition and housing market is the key to grasp the law of market operation,improve the effectiveness of housing regulation,and build a harmonious society.Firstly,under the framework of generation overlapping analysis,the relationship model between marriage competition and housing prices is obtained by using the Bellman equation analysis method.Secondly,based on the panel data of 286 prefecture-level cities in China from 2005 to 2017,it examines the influence mechanism of marriage competition on housing prices and the role of intergenerational transfer of family wealth and parental altruistic behavior.Finally,it divides 286 cities into 4 categories and 5 categories according to geographic location and city size,and discusses the heterogeneous effect of marriage matching competition on housing prices.The results show that:(1)Increased marriage matching competition is an important driver of rising housing prices.(2)The mechanism by which marriage matching competition affects housing prices lies in the partial intermediary role played by intergenerational transfer of family wealth,while parental altruistic behavior capacity negatively regulates the first half of the intermediary effect and positively regulates the second half of the intermediary effect.(3)The impact of marriage matching competition on housing prices shows heterogeneous characteristics depending on geographic location and city size.The conclusions of this paper have important theoretical and practical significance for formulation of housing regulation policies,turning"marriage room competition"into"quality competition",and achieving a"better life"and"a peaceful dream"for the marriageable group.

关 键 词：婚配竞争 住房市场 家庭财富代际转移 异质性 贝尔曼方程 有调节的中介效应 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济] F126[社会学] C913.1