新发展格局下中国大豆进口依赖性风险及市场布局优化分析  

An Analysis of Dependence Risk and Market Layout Optimization for Soybean Import of China under the New Development Pattern

作　　者：魏艳骄 张慧艳 朱晶[3] Wei Yanjiao;Zhang Huiyan;Zhu Jing

机构地区：[1]扬州大学商学院 [2]南京农业大学经济管理学院 [3]南京农业大学中国粮食安全研究中心

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（农业经济研究）》2022年第5期40-54,共15页AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目"我国粮食供需格局演变与开放条件下的粮食安全政策研究"(项目编号:71934005);国家自然科学基金青年项目"粮食安全目标下中国畜产品进口产品结构与市场布局优化研究:基于饲料粮替代视角"(项目编号:72103177);江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究项目"贸易变局与疫情叠加下江苏省畜产品市场风险防控协同机制研究"(项目编号:2020SJA1969)。

摘　　要：本文基于市场供需主体相互依赖的视角,利用1996-2020年大豆贸易数据,将中国对大豆国际市场的依赖性与主要大豆出口国对中国大豆进口需求市场的依赖性同时纳入测算体系,考察中国大豆进口依赖性风险。结果显示,中国大豆进口依赖性风险主要来源于美国和巴西,中国对美国和巴西大豆市场的依赖性水平高于美国和巴西对中国大豆进口需求市场的依赖性水平,相比而言,中国从阿根廷和加拿大进口大豆不存在进口依赖性风险。在此基础上,从防范与化解大豆进口依赖性风险出发,本文采用区分进口来源的动态ECM-AIDS模型,考察中国大豆进口来源国的市场关系。研究显示,中国大豆进口来源国之间存在显著的替代关系,大豆进口市场呈现明显的竞争性。本文进一步以世界各国的大豆生产资源票赋作为评判大豆进口可获性的依据,确定大豆进口市场多元化布局的地理区域,并采用非线性规划方法,通过最小化大豆进口风险,测算可从各来源国进口大豆的最优进口量,分析大豆进口市场多元化布局的具体方案。From the perspective of the interdependence between market suppliers and demanders,based on the soybean trade data from 1996 to 2020,this article evaluates the dependence risk for soybean imports,taking into con-sideration the interdependence of suppliers and demanders.It shows that the risk of China's soybean import depen-dence mainly comes from the United States and Brazil.In contrast,China's soybean imports from Argentina and Canada do not have import dependence risk.So,in order to alleviate and prevent the dependence risk for soybean import,the study applies a dynamic source-differentiated ECM-AIDS model to analyze China's soybean import market.The results show that there is a significant substitution relationship among China's soybean import source countries,which makes the soybean import market obviously competitive.As a result,it is feasible for China to make a diversified layout for the soybean import market.Some countries are designated as the geographical areas of the diversified layout of the soybean import market depending on their resource endowments for soybean production.Furthermore,the study adopts the nonlinear programming method to calculate the optimal import volume of soybean from the above-men-tioned countries through minimizing the risk of soybean import,which provides specific plans for the diversified layout of the soybean import market.

关 键 词：新发展格局 大豆进口 依赖性风险 市场布局 

分 类 号：F752.61[经济管理—国际贸易] F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]