福利改革的政治分析:制度设计、制度绩效与政治信任  

Politics of Welfare Reform:Institutional Design,Policy Performance and Political Trust

作　　者：孟天广 Meng Tianguang

机构地区：[1]清华大学社会科学学院,北京100084

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（社会保障制度）》2022年第9期21-34,共14页SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“基于大数据的智能化社会治理监测、评估与应对策略研究”(18ZDA110)。

摘　　要：通过福利制度实施再分配被认为具有维护社会稳定、保障社会公正和塑造合法性等功能。近年来我国实施“民生导向”的福利改革反映了国家—社会关系在“分配政治”维度上的历史回归,因而有必要聚焦再分配的制度设计和制度绩效考察福利改革的政治效应。倾向值匹配分析发现,福利制度有效地强化了政治信任,但提升效应存在“央强地弱”的层次化现象。制度设计约束着再分配产生政治信任的效应,普惠性福利的政治回报高于选择性福利,豁免性福利比转移性福利的政治回报更稳定。基于因果中介分析进一步考察制度绩效、福利偏好和公正效能感传递福利生产政治信任的机制性作用,发现再分配生产政治信任的首要机制是制度绩效,其次是福利偏好。因此,通过福利制度推进共同富裕取决于福利制度的优化设计和再分配过程的有效治理。Welfare system is considered to play the roles of maintaining social stability,safeguarding social justice and creating legitimacy.In recent years,Chinese government has implemented a large scale welfare reform,which reflects the return to the historical state-society relations in the dimension of distributive politics.Therefore,it is necessary to examine the political effects of welfare reform through institutional design and policy performance.The analysis on the matching point of propensity value finds that welfare reform effectively strengthens political trust,but there exists a hierarchical difference:the strengthening effect of the central government is much stronger than that of the local government.On the one hand,institutional design constrains the effect of political trust generated by redistribution.Inclusive benefits have higher political returns than selective benefits,and exempt benefits are more stable than transfer benefits.Based on the causal mediation analysis,we further examine the institutional effects of institutional performance,welfare preference and justice efficacy in transmitting the political trust generated by welfare,and find that the primary mechanism for redistribution that gives rise to political trust is institutional performance,followed by welfare preference.Therefore,promoting common prosperity through the welfare system depends on the optimal design of the welfare system and the effective governance of the redistribution process.

关 键 词：再分配 政治信任 福利改革 制度设计 因果机制 

分 类 号：D632.1[政治法律—政治学]