中国城镇家庭“一老一小”社会化照料需求估计——基于多源数据的比较分析  

Estimation of the Demand for“Elderly and Child”Socialized Care of Urban Families in China:Comparative Analysis Based on Multi-source Data

作　　者：杨博文 叶宸辰 刘林平[1] Yang Bowen;Ye Chenchen;Liu Linping

机构地区：[1]南京大学社会学院,南京210023 [2]江苏省苏科创新战略研究院,南京210019

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（社会保障制度）》2022年第10期54-66,共13页SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“互联网时代家政工人雇佣关系研究”(18ASH007);江苏省社会科学界联合会重大应用研究课题“江苏完善‘一老一小’服务体系的思路和举措研究”(21WTA-018)。

摘　　要：文章从家庭照料负担和内部照料能力出发,采用CFPS、CHFS及CHNS多源数据比较分析的方法,估计城镇家庭“一老一小”社会化照料需求规模。研究发现:有老年人、儿童和双重照料需求的城镇家庭分别为3.41%~6.89%、2.85%~10.84%和0.26%~0.31%,对应的均值水平分别为5.26%、7.32%和0.29%;家庭规模小型化和双职工家庭比例增加是造成巨大社会化照料需求的重要原因;从均值水平看,照料市场存在超过434万老年人照料和315万儿童照料的劳动力缺口;2010—2018年CFPS多期数据趋势表明,城镇家庭照料能力大幅度下降,老年人和儿童社会化照料需求分别增加了140%和170%。据此,进一步讨论了完善养老托幼服务体系可能遇到的障碍和契机,并提出了相关政策建议。Starting from the family care burden and internal care ability,this paper uses the method of comparative analysis of CFPS,CHFS,and CHNS multi-source data to estimate the scale of“elderly and child”socialized care needs of urban families.The study finds that the urban families with elderly,children,and dual care needs are 3.41%~6.89%,2.85%~10.84%,and 0.26%~0.31%respectively,and the corresponding mean levels are 5.26%,7.32%,and 0.29%respectively;the miniaturization of family size and the increase in the proportion of double working families are important reasons for the huge demand for socialized care;from the average level,there is a labor gap of more than 4.34 million elderly care and 3.15 million children care in the care market;the trend of CFPS multi period data from 2010 to 2018 shows that the care capacity of urban families has decreased significantly,and the demand for socialized care of the elderly and children has increased by 140%and 170%respectively.Accordingly,this paper further discusses the possible obstacles and opportunities to improve the elderly care and child care service system,and puts forward relevant policy suggestions.

关 键 词：中国城镇家庭 “一老一小” 家庭照料能力 社会化照料需求 

分 类 号：D669.5[政治法律—政治学] D669.6[政治法律—中外政治制度]