突发事件、贸易中断与粮食安全——基于全球投入产出分析的视角  

Emergency Events,Trade Interruption and Food Security:From the Perspective of Global Input-output Analysis

作　　者：闫冰倩 王振霞[1] Yan Bingqian;Wang Zhenxia

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（国际贸易研究）》2022年第6期3-17,共15页INTERNATIONAL TRADE

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“全球价值链视角下我国区域真实能源利用率与减排路径研究”(71903195);人社部留学人员科技活动择优资助项目。

摘　　要：突发性公共卫生事件可能导致的贸易和物流中断,将会对世界农产品市场产生显著冲击,甚至会威胁国家粮食安全。由供求关系变化导致的农产品贸易波动,将有可能引发全球经济增长走势、就业和福利水平的变化,值得高度关注。本文采用投入产出方法,模拟美国、印度和巴西等受疫情影响严重的粮食出口大国停止农产品对外出口的情境,分析对其自身和世界其他主要国家经济增长和就业的实际影响。结果表明,如果澳大利亚、俄罗斯和中国等其他粮食生产国能完全弥补贸易缺口,那么不仅有助于形成新的贸易平衡格局,还能在一定程度上提高各国自身的经济增长和就业水平。受此影响,美国、巴西和印度的经济增长和就业都将受到重创,其中,美国的增长下降最多,但就业下降有限;印度和巴西的国内就业将受到极大影响;如果世界其他国家无法迅速弥补贸易缺口,全球各国或将普遍受到严重冲击。以中国为例,若美国、巴西和印度停止出口,那么中国国内粮食价格将上涨24%左右,国内生产者价格指数(PPI)将上涨7.88个百分点,CPI将上涨4.30个百分点。受此影响,城乡居民福利均有明显下降,其中城镇居民福利损失将是农村居民的2倍多。因此,中国应立足提升国内粮食生产的能力,积极参与国际大宗商品贸易规则制定,建立完善的低收入群体保障机制,以应对可能出现的危机。A Public Health Emergency may lead to trade and logistics interruptions,which have strong impacts on global food markets and even threaten national food security.Because a food trade fluctuation caused by changes in supply and demand relationships can result in changes in global economic growth trends,employment,and welfare,it is a matter of concern for all countries.This paper applies input-output analysis to simulate scenarios in which big exporting countries that were heavily affected by the pandemic outbreak,such as the US,India and Brazil,stop exporting food.Then,it analyzes the impacts on economic growth and employment in the main economies in the world under different scenarios.Results show that,under the scenario of other major food producing countries(such as Australia,Russia and China)flling the food supply gap,a new trade balance pattern would be formed and would improve economic growth and the employment level to some extent in each of these countries.On the other hand,economic growth and employment in the US,Brazil and India would be heavily hit.Among them,the GDP in the US would decrease the most,while employment would be slightly influenced.In contrast,the employment level in India and Brazil would be highly affected.Under the scenario of other countries failing to fll the food supply gap,each country would be severely hit.Take China as an example.If the US,Brazil and India stopped exporting food,the food price in China would increase by 24%.The PPI and CPI would increase by 7.88 and 4.30 percentage points,respectively.As a result,household welfare would obviously decrease,and the welfare loss of urban households would be two times that of rural households.To deal with the potential risks,China should improve food production capacity,actively participate in trade rule-making for international commodities,and establish sound guarantee mechanisms for low-income groups.

关 键 词：突发公共卫生事件 贸易中断 粮食安全 投入产出分析 

分 类 号：F32[经济管理—产业经济] F75