中国省际贸易潜力估算——基于国内贸易与国际贸易对比的视角  

The Estimation of Chinas Inter-provincial Trade Potential:Based on the Perspective of Comparison between Domestic Trade and International Trade

作　　者：施炳展[1] 张瑞恩 Shi Bingzhan;Zhang Ruien

机构地区：[1]南开大学跨国公司研究中心 [2]南开大学经济学院

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（国际贸易研究）》2022年第6期95-105,共11页INTERNATIONAL TRADE

基　　金：国家社科基金重大课题“新一轮技术革命与中国对外贸易高质量发展问题研究”(20&ZD069);国家自然科学基金面上项目“境内成本与中国进口贸易利益:整体规模、分布特征与实现渠道”(71973071)。

摘　　要：受限于学科分类或数据可得性,大量研究将商品国内流动与国际流动割裂开来,无法体现双循环的整体性。有鉴于此,本文将中国各省之间、各省与各国贸易数据进行整合,基于国内贸易与国际贸易对比的视角,讨论中国省际贸易潜力的发展趋势及其分布特点。引力模型研究结果表明,中国省际贸易潜力高于国际贸易潜力;省际贸易潜力分布存在明显的地区差异,我国中部地区的省际贸易潜力最高,依次为西部地区、东部地区;贸易潜力来源由沿海地区向中、西部地区转移,特别是华中、西南地区;从行业结构来看,生活消费品行业以及高新技术产业更具省际贸易潜力;本文结论在考虑了多边贸易阻力、指标构建、极端样本点等因素后依然稳健。上述结论意味着,相对于外循环而言,中国内循环潜力更充分、更具前景;相对于对外开放力度而言,对内改革广度和深度有待进一步加强。Limited by subject classification and data availability,most existing research separates the domestic flow of goods and international one,which does not reflect the integrity of dual circulation.Thus,we integrated the trade data among provinces in China as well as that between Chinas provinces and foreign countries,and emphasized the development trends and distribution characteristics of Chinas inter-provincial trade potential by comparing domestic and international trade.Estimation results obtained from the gravity model show that the potential index of Chinas inter-provincial trade is higher than that of its international trade;there are evident regional differences in the distribution of inter-provincial trade potential,i.e.,the central part of China has the highest potential for inter-provincial trade,followed by west and east of China;the source of interprovincial trade potential is transferred from the coastal areas to central and west of China,especially for Central China and southwest part;in terms of industrial structure,industries of consumer goods and high technology have more potential for inter-provincial trade.The conclusion of this article remains robust after considering multilateral trade resistance,index setting,and extreme values.The above conclusion indicates that compared with the external circulation,China's internal circulation potential is sufficient and promising,whereas compared with the intensity of opening-up,the breadth and depth of internal reform can be further strengthened.

关 键 词：省际贸易潜力:出口潜力:引力模型 双循环 

分 类 号：F724[经济管理—产业经济] F752