汇率对中国加工贸易出口份额的影响:市场需求视角  

The Impact of Exchange Rate Movement on Chinas Processing Trade Share of Exports:An Analysis from the Perspective of Market Demand

作　　者：王雅琦 余淼杰 Wang Yaqi;Yu Miaojie

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学金融学院国际金融研究中心,100871

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（国际贸易研究）》2022年第2期3-16,共14页INTERNATIONAL TRADE

基　　金：国家自然科学杰出青年基金项目(71625007);国家社科基金重大项目(20ZDA050);“青蓝科研团队”资助。

摘　　要：本文基于海关细分企业、产品及目的地层面数据,研究中国出口结构中加工贸易份额变化的特征和趋势。数据分析指出2005年后加工贸易出口份额明显下降。本文提出汇率变动影响中国加工贸易出口份额的理论机制是,汇率变动导致一般贸易和加工贸易模式下市场需求和出口利润发生变化,从而影响出口企业贸易模式选择。经验研究发现,人民币升值会带来中国出口加工贸易份额下降,加工贸易出口份额下降在国外需求规模相对更大的行业更明显。基准结论对一系列稳健性检验都保持成立。This paper studies the characteristics and trends of changes in the processing trade share in Chinas total export structure based on transaction-level trade data(Chinese customs data)from 2002 to 2011.Our analysis indicates that:(i)the processing trade share in total exports declined considerably after 2005;(i)the exchange rate movement affects the exporters choice between ordinary and processing trade modes by inducing changes in market demand and export profits,thereby affecting the choice of trade modes by exporters;and(ii)empirical analysis finds that RMB appreciation results in a decline in Chinas processing trade export share,with a greater magnitude in industries with a relatively larger foreign demand size.This baseline conclusion remains valid for a series of robustness tests.

关 键 词：加工贸易出口份额 汇率变动 汇率弹性 市场需求 

分 类 号：F752.6[经济管理—国际贸易] F832.6[经济管理—产业经济]