经济政策不确定性会导致完全出口企业转内销吗——来自中国微观企业的证据  

Will Economic Policy Uncertainty Cause Fully Export Enterprises to Switch to Domestic Sales:Evidence from China's Micro Enterprises

作　　者：郎丽华[1] 徐灵 胡睿 Lang Lihua;Xu Ling;Hu Rui

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学经济学院 [2]邢台学院经济与贸易学院

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（国际贸易研究）》2022年第1期44-54,共11页INTERNATIONAL TRADE

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(19BJY186)。

摘　　要：文章实证估计了经济政策不确定性对完全出口企业内销行为的影响,结果表明经济政策不确定性上升会显著提升完全出口企业的内销参与概率,提高完全出口企业的内销规模。同时,经济政策不确定性上升对完全出口企业内销行为的影响具有选择效应:相较于民营企业,经济政策不确定性上升对外资性质的完全出口企业转内销的影响相对较小;对中西部完全出口企业转内销的影响要大于东部地区企业;对竞争程度较强行业的完全出口企业转内销的影响要大于竞争程度较弱行业;对资本密集型行业的完全出口企业转内销的影响要大于劳动密集型行业。进一步的渠道检验表明:经济政策不确定性上升通过抑制完全出口企业的生产规模,企业融资约束趋紧导致被迫转向国内市场,增加内销规模。This paper empirically estimates the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the domestic sales behavior of fully export enterprises.The results show that rising economic policy uncertainty will significantly increase the domestic sales participation probability and domestic sales scale of fully export enterprises.At the same time,the increase in economic policy uncertainty has a selective effect on the domestic sales behavior of fully export enterprises.Compared with private enterprises,the increase in economic policy uncertainty has a relatively small impact on foreign-funded fully export enterprises;its influence on fully export enterprises in the central and western regions is greater than that on fully export enterprises in the eastern region;its impact on fully export enterprises in the highly competitive industries is greater than that on fully export enterprises in the less competitive industries;its impact on fully export enterprises in the capital-intensive industries is greater than that on fully export enterprises in the labor-intensive industries.The further channel test reveals that the rising economic policy uncertainty forces fully export enterprises to turn to the domestic market and enlarge the scale of domestic sales by inhibiting the production scale of fully export enterprises and tightening financing constraints of the enterprises.

关 键 词：不确定性 完全出口企业 内销参与 内销规模 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易] F120[经济管理—产业经济]