基于PSR模型的茂县生态脆弱性时空演化特征分析及趋势预测  

Characteristic analysis and trend prediction of spatial-temporal evolution of ecological vulnerability in Mao county based on the PSR model

作　　者：张振龙 王勇 王哲[1] 冯喜杨 夏清[1] 袁波 杨利 姜永兴 张艳 朱健美 Zhang Zhenlong;WangYong;Wang Zhe;Feng Xiyang;Xia Qing;Yuan Bo;Yang Li;Jiang Yongxing;Zhang Yan;Zhu Jianmei(College of Environment and Resources,Southwest University of Science&Technology,Mianyang Sichuan 621010,China;Sichuan Aba Ecological Environment Monitoring Center Station,Maerkang Sichuan 624000,China)

机构地区：[1]西南科技大学环境与资源学院,四川绵阳621010 [2]四川省阿坝生态环境监测中心站,四川马尔康624000

出　　处：《化工矿物与加工》2023年第4期1-8,共8页Industrial Minerals & Processing

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC1803500,2019YFC1803504);四川省科技厅重点研发项目(2018SZ0298);阿坝州应用技术研究与开发资金项目(20YYJSY0063,22YYJSYJ0131);干热河谷特色生物资源开发四川省高校重点实验室开放基金项目(GR-2020-E-02,JDH-2019-E-01)。

摘　　要：为揭示岷江上游茂县段生态脆弱性时空演化特征及趋势,以生态环境变化为驱动因素,基于“压力-状态-响应”模型构建了生态脆弱性评价指标体系,计算得到研究区2000年、2007年、2014年和2018年4期生态脆弱性指数,并利用相邻差值法和变化斜率法对4个时相的生态脆弱性指数进行变化分析及趋势预测,结果表明:茂县生态环境脆弱区域主要集中在干流两侧和居民聚集区,4个时相生态脆弱性指数标准化平均值为0.371;生态脆弱性变化较大的2个时间节点为2007年后和2014年后,前者为“5·12”大地震后地质灾害频发导致生态脆弱性指数升高,后者由于大力开展干旱河谷区生态综合治理而使生态脆弱性指数降低;生态脆弱性指数显著降低区域主要集中在西部高山区,而显著增加区域则主要集中分布在岷江南部干流附近和东部居民聚集区。In order to study the spatial and temporal evolutionary characteristics and trends of ecological vulnerability in Mao county,upstream of Minjiang River,an ecological vulnerability evaluation system was constructed based on the"pressure-state-response"model with the driving factors of ecological environment changed,and four ecological vulnerability indices for the studying area in 2000,2007,2014 and 2018 were obtained.The adjacent difference method and variable slope method were used for studying the changes and predicting the trend of ecological vulnerability index in the four periods.The study showed that the ecologically fragile sections in Mao county were mainly located on both sides of the main stream and in residential areas,and the standardized and averaged value of the ecological fragility index for the four periods was 0.371.The two milestone times of ecological vulnerability changed greatly were after 2007 and after 2014.The rising of the ecological vulnerability index after 2007 was due to frequent geological disasters following the Wenchuan earthquake on 12th May 2008,and the decrease of ecological vulnerability index after 2014 was contributed to performance of ecological remediation in the dry valley.The ecological vulnerability index dropped significantly mainly in the mountai-nous areas in the west,while it increased significantly mainly around the main stream of Minjiang River in the south and the residential areas in the east.

关 键 词：生态脆弱性 “压力-状态-响应”模型 层次分析法 时空演化 相邻差值法 变化斜率法 

分 类 号：X826[环境科学与工程—环境工程]