中美贸易摩擦对中国水产品国际贸易水平的影响测度  

The Measurement of the Impact of China-U.S.Trade Friction on China's International Trade of Aquatic Products

作　　者：卢昆[1] 王希龙 皮埃尔·菲勒 陈珏颖[3] 王钦意 Lu Kun;Wang Xilong;Pierre Failler;Chen Jueying;Wang Qinyi

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学管理学院,青岛266100 [2]朴茨茅斯大学蓝色治理中心,朴茨茅斯PO13DE [3]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081 [4]密歇根州立大学社会科学学院,东兰辛MI48823

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（农业经济研究）》2022年第1期64-73,共10页AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金面上项目(编号:ZR2019MG003);中国国家留学基金(编号:CSCNO.201906335016);中国海洋大学管理学院青年英才支持计划;国家自然科学基金项目(编号:71673274);中国农业科学院科技创新工程(编号:ASTIP-IAED-2021-06)。

摘　　要：本文在构建多变量灰色模型MGM(1,3)的基础上,使用“反事实推理”方法测算了最近一轮中美贸易摩擦对中国水产品进出口水平的总体影响程度。研究发现:中美此轮贸易摩擦未对中国水产品的进口水平造成负面影响,中国水产品的进口结构对此轮中美贸易摩擦做出了积极的胁迫性响应,并且已处于转型升级阶段;中国的水产品进口在贸易空间格局上存在明显的替代效应,中国水产品进口既有的多元化渠道保障能力不但能够抵消,而且远远超过了中美此轮贸易摩擦潜在的负面效应;受中国水产品出口对美国市场依赖程度较高的影响,中美此轮贸易摩擦的爆发对中国水产品出口量和出口额均造成了微幅的负面冲击。着眼于水产品国际贸易的高质量安全发展,“十四五”期间中国的水产品国际贸易不仅要优化贸易格局,做好水产品出口市场的适应性调整,而且要据时调整水产品生产加工结构,全面提升水产品出口竞争力,另外还要强化水产品质检防疫工作,提升冷链物流运营体系的安监水平。Based on MGM(1,3),a multivariate gray prediction model,this article used the method of counterfactual reasoning to calculate the overall impact of China-U.S.trade friction on China's aquatic product import and export level.The results show that this round of China-U.S.trade friction has no negative impact on the import level of China's aquatic products.Responded well to this round of China-U.S.trade friction,the import structure of China's aquatic products has been in the stage of transformation and upgrading.China's aquatic product import has an obvious substi-tution effect on the trade space pattern.The existing diversified import channels of aquatic products in China can not only offset but way exceed the potential negative effects of this round of China-U.S.trade friction.Influenced by the high dependence of China's aquatic products export on the market of U.S.,the outbreak of this round of China-U.S.trade friction has caused a slight negative impact on the export volume and value of China's aquatic products.In order to realize the high-quality and safe development of China's international trade in aquatic products,it is necessary to optimize the pattern of international trade in aquatic products and adjust the export market of aquatic products appro-priately during"the 14th Five-Year Plan"period.Meanwhile,the production and processing structure of aquatic prod-ucts should be adjusted to ensure the continuous improvement of export competitiveness of aquatic products.In addi-tion,it is urgent to strengthen the work of aquatic product quality inspection and epidemic prevention,and improve the safety supervision level of the cold chain logistics operation system.

关 键 词：水产品国际贸易 中美贸易摩擦 水产品进口 水产品出口 多变量灰色预测 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易] F757.12[经济管理—产业经济] F326.4