多因素耦合下长江口水域交通事故致因链分析  

Causal chain of maritime accidents in Yangtze River Estuary considering coupling effects of multi-risk factors

作　　者：付姗姗 张悦 席永涛[2] 翁金贤 FU Shanshan;ZHANG Yue;XI Yongtao;WENG Jinxian(College of Transport and Communications,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China;College of Merchant Marine,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学交通运输学院,上海201306 [2]上海海事大学商船学院,上海201306

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2023年第3期60-67,共8页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(52072237);上海市“科技创新行动计划”软科学研究项目(21692106400);上海市青年科技启明星计划项目(22QC1400600)。

摘　　要：为探究长江口水域船舶交通事故的形成原因,提出一种考虑多因素耦合作用的船舶交通事故分析方法。首先,采用文本挖掘技术深度分析多源海事事故调查报告和相关文献,从环境、船舶、人为和组织等方面构建诱发长江口水域船舶交通事故因素集;然后,采用卡方检验法分析风险因素之间耦合关系,构建多因素耦合作用下长江口水域船舶交通事故的贝叶斯网络(BN)模型;最后,采用敏感性分析方法提取长江口水域船舶交通事故致因链,进而提出相应的事故防控对策。结果表明:诱发长江口水域船舶交通事故的致因链共有8条,其中,大风、货物积载不当、船型、不安全航速、疏忽瞭望、未对危险作出充分估计、未履行让路义务和未能尽早采取积极的避险措施8个风险因素是诱发长江口水域船舶交通事故的关键共性因素。In order to explore the causes of maritime accidents in the Yangtze River Estuary waters,a ship traffic accident analysis method considering the coupling effect of multiple factors was proposed.Firstly,this paper conducted an in-depth analysis of multi-source maritime accident investigation reports and related literatures based on text mining technolog.A set of factors that induced maritime accidents in the Yangtze River Estuary waters was constructed from the environment,ship,human and organizational aspects.Then,the chi-square test was used to analyze the coupling relationship between these risk factors.A BN model of maritime accidents in the Yangtze River Estuary waters was constructed under the action of multi-factor coupling.Finally,the prevention and control countermeasures for ship traffic accidents in the Yangtze River Estuary waters were proposed by performing a sensitivity analysis on the model.The results show that:there are eight causal chains that induce ship traffic accidents in the Yangtze River Estuary waters,and wind,improper cargo stowage,ship type,unsafe speed,negligence of lookout,failure to fully estimate the danger,failure to perform the duty of giving way and failure of control equipment are the eight mutual risk factors that induce ship traffic accidents in the Yangtze River Estuary waters.

关 键 词：多因素耦合作用 长江口水域 船舶交通事故 致因链 贝叶斯网络(BN) 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]