基于双层映射10kV馈线负荷预测方法  

10kV Feeder Load Forecasting Method Based on Double Layer Mapping

作　　者：郭镥 刘永礼 李龙飞 何明 杨慧敏 张媛 吴倩 GUO Lu;LIU Yongli;LI Longfei;HE Ming;YANG Huimin;ZHANG Yuan;WU Qian(Shenzhen Power Supply Co.,Ltd.,Shenzhen 518000,China;Beijing T&D Power Research Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]深圳供电局有限公司,广东深圳518000 [2]天地电研(北京)科技有限公司,北京102206

出　　处：《湖南电力》2023年第2期71-78,84,共9页Hunan Electric Power

摘　　要：馈线负荷对配电系统规划、安全运行、设备维护、负荷分析等极为重要。采用空间负荷预测方法间接实现电气负荷预测,适用于空间用地性质明确、地块负荷历史数据充分、馈线电气负荷历史数据较缺乏情景下对10kV馈线进行负荷预测。根据“元件-地块”空间隶属关系,借助空间地块负荷预测间接实现以馈线段为单位的微观电气负荷预测,并进一步汇总得到整条10kV馈线的中长期负荷。先将现状年电气负荷映射为空间负荷,经过空间负荷预测得到所需规划年的空间负荷,再将规划年空间负荷映射为电气负荷,最后汇总得到馈线的预测负荷。将算例的结果分别与现有主流预测方法和实际负荷数据相对比,对比结果表明所提模型和计算方法满足配电网规划的准确性要求,实用有效。Feeder load is very important for distribution system planning,safe operation,equipment maintenance and load analysis,etc.This paper uses the spatial load forecasting method to indirectly realize electrical load forecasting,which is suitable for the load forecasting of 10 kV feeders under the situation that the purpose of spatial land is clear,the historical data of parcel load is sufficient,but the historical data of feeder electrical load is relatively lacking.According to the“component-parcel”spatial membership relationship,the micro electrical load forecasting based on the feeder segment is indirectly realized by means of the spatial parcel load forecasting,and further summarizes the medium and long-term loads of the entire 10 kV feeder line.The core idea is to first map the electrical load of the current year to the spatial load,and then obtain the spatial load of the required planning year through the spatial load prediction,and then map the spatial load of the planning year to the electrical load,and finally summarize the predicted load of the feeder.The results of the example are compared with the existing mainstream forecasting methods and the actual load collection data respectively.It shows that the proposed model and calculation method meet the accuracy requirements of distribution network planning,and it is practical and effective.

关 键 词：馈线电气负荷 空间负荷 馈线负荷预测 剩余负荷 

分 类 号：TM714[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]