日均气温对兰州市支气管炎影响的时间序列分析  

Effect of Daily Mean Temperature on Bronchitis Outpatient Visit in Lanzhou:A Time-Series Study

作　　者：杨仁庆 董继元[1] 王雁茹 刘宁 YANG Renqing;DONG Jiyuan;WANG Yanru;LIU Ning(School of Public Health,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000;College of Management,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学公共卫生学院,兰州730000 [2]兰州大学管理学院,兰州730000

出　　处：《气象》2023年第3期340-350,共11页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：甘肃省自然科学基金项目(21JR1RA011)资助。

摘　　要：为研究兰州市日均气温对支气管炎门诊人数的影响,收集兰州市2013—2019年三所综合性医院支气管炎患者门诊就诊资料及气象、空气污染物等数据,构建分布滞后非线性模型分析气温和支气管炎门诊就诊风险的关系,并按性别、年龄进行分层分析。兰州市日均气温对支气管炎门诊就诊量的影响是非线性的,且存在滞后效应。低温(-5.0℃)和高温(25.4℃)的危害效应均为暴露当天最大,随着滞后天数增加危害逐渐减弱,低温持续滞后1~13 d,高温持续滞后19 d。冷效应的危害作用大于热效应,但热效应有更长的滞后时间。气温第5百分位数(-5.0℃)和第95百分位数(25.4℃)分别在累积滞后14 d和21 d时效应值最大,分别为2.832和1.070。低温和高温暴露下男性就诊风险大于女性,最大累积相对危险度(RR)值分别为3.089、1.085。低温和高温下0~14岁儿童的门诊就诊风险显著高于其他年龄人群,在-5.0℃时,累积滞后14 d时有最大值,RR值为3.191,在25.4℃时,累积滞后21 d时有最大值,RR值为1.089。低温和高温均增加兰州市居民支气管炎门诊就诊风险,低温的危害效应大于高温效应,14岁以下儿童对低温反应更加敏感。To explore the effects of daily mean temperature on bronchitis outpatient visit in Lanzhou,we collected the data on bronchitis outpatient visit,meteorology and atmospheric pollutants during 2013-2019 from three general hospitals in Lanzhou.In this paper,we construct a distribution lag non-linear model to analyze the relationship between the temperature and the daily risk of bronchitis outpatient visit.The stratified analysis is performed according to the division of ages and gender groups.The effect of daily mean temperature on bronchitis outpatient visit is non-linear and lagging.The hazard effects of low temperature(-5.0℃),and high temperature(25.4℃)are the largest on that very day,and then get weakened gradually with the lag days.The hazard effect of low temperature lasts for 13 days(lag 1-13 d),and the hazard effect of high temperature lasts 19 days.The cold effect has a greater harmful effect and duration than the heat effect.When the temperature is set to-5.0℃and 25.4℃,the maximal cumulative lag effect appears on lag 0-14 d,and lag 0-21 d,respectively,the RR values are 2.832(95%CI:2.411-3.326)and 1.070(95%CI:1.054-1.086).The risk of bronchial outpatient visit caused by low temperature,and high temperature is greater for men than for women,with a maximum cumulative relative risk of 3.089(95%CI:2.601-3.669)and 1.085(95%CI:1.067-1.104).The risk of outpatient visits for children aged 0-14 is significantly higher than that of other age groups at low temperature,and the peak RR appears on lag 0-14 d,with the value of 3.191(95%CI:2.654-3.837).When the temperature is at 25.4℃,the maximum value occurs on lag 0-21 d,and the RR value is 1.089(95%CI:1.070-1.109).Both high temperature and low temperature imdrove the bronchitis outpatient visit risk.The harmful effect and duration of low temperature are greater than that of high temperature,and children aged 0-14 are more sensitive to low temperature.

关 键 词：日均气温 支气管炎 分布滞后非线性模型 

分 类 号：P426[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P122