基于MaxEnt的湖北省鹅掌楸属树种适宜生态分布区预测  

Prediction of Suitable Ecological Distribution Areas for Liriodendron in Hubei Province Using MaxEnt Model

作　　者：刘华 管兰华 黄光体 曹健 杨寒 胡超 鲍汉民 Liu Hua;Guan Lanhua;Huang Guangti;Cao Jian;Yang Han;Hu Chao;Bao Hanmin(Management Station of forest tree seedlings of Hubei Provincial Forestry Department,Wuhan 430079;Investigation and Planning Institute of Hubei Province,Wuhan 430079;Wuhan Dingsen Survery and Planning Co.,ltd,Wuhan 430100)

机构地区：[1]湖北省林业局林木种苗管理总站,武汉430079 [2]湖北省林业调查规划院,武汉430079 [3]武汉鼎森勘察规划有限公司,武汉430100

出　　处：《湖北林业科技》2023年第2期9-15,共7页Hubei Forestry Science and Technology

基　　金：中央财政林业科技推广示范资金项目“亚美马褂木优良品种繁育与推广示范”(鄂[2022]GT19)。

摘　　要：通过鹅掌楸属树种在湖北省的潜在分布范围分析,为该属树种造林工作提供有力的理论支持。通过使用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS10模型建立,对鹅掌楸属树种在湖北省的适宜生态分布区进行预测,并且对影响鹅掌楸属树种分布的主导环境因子进行了分析。MaxEnt模型高精度预测鹅掌楸属树种在湖北省的适宜生态分布区范围,重建模型的测试样本AUC值为0.894,训练样本AUC值为0.886。鹅掌楸属树种在湖北省的高适生区面积为336095 hm^(2),主要分布在:鄂中的京山市;鄂西的长阳县、五峰县、鹤峰县、利川市和恩施市。中适生区面积为1975633 hm^(2),重点区域为:鄂东的黄梅县、蕲春县、阳新县、赤壁市、通山县、江夏区、通城县、大冶市、嘉鱼县、咸安区和崇阳县;鄂中的孝昌县、大悟县和安陆市;鄂西的竹溪县、远安县、夷陵区、建始县、咸丰县和宣恩县。年日最高气温≥35.0℃日数、年最少降水量、年平均风速、年最大日降水量、年极端最低气温、年平均相对湿度和月最长连续降水日数是影响鹅掌楸属树种适生区分布的主导气候因子。基于MaxEnt的鹅掌楸属树种在湖北省适宜生态分布区的预测是可行的,可靠性较高,对鹅掌楸属树种在湖北省的推广应用具有促进和指导作用。The purpose of this study is to predict the potential distribution areas of Liriodendron in Hubei Province,finally to provide strong technical support for the afforestation improvement.By using Maxent Model and ArcGIS10 software for modelling,the suitable ecological distribution areas of Liriodendron were predicted in Hubei Province and the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution were determined.The prediction of the suitable ecological distribution areas for Liriodendron in Hubei Province was conducted with a high precision degree by reconstruction of MaxEnt Model.The AUC value of test data and training data were 0.894 and 0.886 respectively.The high suitable regions for Liriodendron cover an area of 336095 hectares,mainly distributed in Jingshan in central Hubei as well as Changyang,Wufeng,Hefeng,Lichuan and Enshi in western Hubei.The medium suitable regions for Liriodendron cover an area of 1975633 hectares,mainly distributed in Huangmei,Qichun,Yangxin,Daye,Jiangxia,Jiayu,Chibi,Tongshan,Tongcheng,Xianan and Chongyang in eastern Hubei,Xiaochang,Dawu and Anlu in central Hubei as well as Zhuxi,Yuanan,Yiling,Jianshi,Xianfeng and Xuanen in western Hubei.Annual maximum daily temperature≥35.0℃ days,annual minimum precipitation,annual average wind speed,annual maximum daily precipitation,annual extreme minimum temperature,annual average relative humidity and monthly longest continuous precipitation days are dominant climatic factors to determine the suitable distributions for Liriodendron.The prediction of suitable ecological distribution area of Liriodendron in Hubei Province Based on MaxEnt is feasible and reliable,which can promote and guide the popularization and application of Liriodendron in Hubei Province.

关 键 词：MaxEnt模型 ArcGIS10.0 鹅掌楸属 生态分布区 

分 类 号：S722.7[农业科学—林木遗传育种] S725.1[农业科学—林学] S792.21