当前及未来气候下四川省草地贪夜蛾适生区分布  

Predicting the Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Fall Armyworm,Spodoptera frugiperda(J.E.Smith),under Changing Climate in Sichuan Province,China

作　　者：张雪艳 谢文琪 封传红 马利 李庆[1] 杨群芳[1] 王茹琳 蒋春先[1] ZHANG Xueyan;XIE Wenqi;FENG Chuanhong;MA Li;LI Qing;YANG Qunfang;WANG Rulin;JIANG Chunxian(College of Agronomy,Sichuan Agricultural University,Chengdu 611130,China;Plant Protection Station of Sichuan Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Chengdu 610041,China;Sichuan Provincial Rural Economic Information Centre,Chengdu 610072,China;Water-Saving Agriculture in Southern Hill Area Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610066,China)

机构地区：[1]四川农业大学农学院,成都611130 [2]四川省农业农村厅植物保护站,成都610041 [3]四川省农村经济综合信息中心,成都610072 [4]南方丘区节水农业研究四川省重点实验室,成都610066

出　　处：《四川农业大学学报》2023年第2期325-334,共10页Journal of Sichuan Agricultural University

基　　金：四川省科技厅重点研发项目(2019YFN0180);国家现代农业产业技术体系四川创新团队(sccxtd-2021-4)。

摘　　要：【目的】阐释草地贪夜蛾在四川省的适生区分布情况,为四川省草地贪夜蛾监测预警及防控提供参考。【方法】对物种分布模型MaxEnt模型参数进行优化,运用优化后的MaxEnt模型以及最新版Worldclim 2.1气象数据对当前及未来不同气候背景下四川省草地贪夜蛾的适生区分布进行研究。【结果】草地贪夜蛾在四川省适生区总面积为2516.64万hm^(2),占全省总面积的51.18%。除川西高原的甘孜州、阿坝州及川西南凉山州的部分地区外,四川省其余各市均为草地贪夜蛾的适生区。整体适生区分布趋势为由西向东适生等级增高。未来气候条件下,草地贪夜蛾的适生区范围略有扩大。其中,高适生区面积较当前增加9.00%~37.67%;中适生区、低适生区面积较当前分别减少13.29%~52.21%、3.44%~26.08%;非适生区面积较当前减少1.60%~16.72%。【结论】四川省有着较广的草地贪夜蛾适生区。在未来气候条件下,四川省草地贪夜蛾适生区将向西向北扩张。【Objective】 This paper aims to clarify the potential distribution of Spodoptera frugiperda in Sichuan Province and provide reference for monitoring,early warning and prevention S.frugiperda in Sichuan.【Method】 This study first optimized the parameters of the MaxEnt model.Then,the optimized MaxEnt model and the latest version of WorldClim were used to predict the potential distribution of S.frugiperda in Sichuan under different climate backgrounds at present and in the future.【Result】 The potential distribution area of S.frugiperda in Sichuan is 25.166 4 million hm^(2),accounting for 51.18% of the total area of Sichuan.Most areas in Sichuan are potential distribution areas for S.frugiperda,except for the Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture of Garzê and Tibetan Qiang Autonomous Prefecture of Ngawa on the Western Sichuan Plateau and parts of Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture in southwestern Sichuan.Based on the overall distribution trend,the suitability increases from west to east.Under future climate change scenarios,the range of the potential distribution area for S.frugiperda will expand.The area of high suitability will increase by 9.00%~37.67% of the current area;the areas of medium and low suitability will decrease by 13.29%~52.21% and 3.44%~26.08%,respectively;and the unsuitable area will decrease by 1.60%~16.72%.【Conclusion】 Sichuan Province has a large area of potential distribution for S.frugiperda.Under the future climate conditions,the potential distribution of S.frugiperda in Sichuan will expand westward and northward.

关 键 词：草地贪夜蛾 适生区分析 MaxEnt模型 气候变化 四川省 

分 类 号：S431.9[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]