基于BASFPA-BP的可靠性预测模型研究  

Study on Reliability Prediction Model Based on BASFPA-BP

作　　者：李红辉[1,2] 陈博 鲁姝艺 张骏温[1] LI Honghui;CHEN Bo;LU Shuyi;ZHANG Junwen(School of Computer and Information Technology,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;China Engineering Research Center of Network Management Technology for High Speed Railway of MOE,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学计算机与信息技术学院,北京100044 [2]高速铁路网络管理教育部工程研究中心,北京100044

出　　处：《计算机科学》2023年第5期31-37,共7页Computer Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2019YFB2102500)。

摘　　要：软件可靠性预测以软件可靠性预测模型为基础,对软件的可靠性以及与其直接相关的度量进行分析、评价和预测,利用软件运行中所收集的失效数据对未来的软件可靠性进行预测,成为了评估软件失效行为和保障软件可靠程度的重要手段。BP神经网络结构简单、参数少、易实现,在软件可靠性预测领域已经得到了广泛应用。然而基于传统BP神经网络搭建的软件可靠性预测模型的预测精度无法达到预期目标,因此提出了基于BASFPA-BP的软件可靠性预测模型。该模型利用软件失效数据,在BP神经网络训练过程中利用BASFPA算法优化网络权值、阈值,从而提高模型的预测精度。选用3组公开的软件失效数据,将实际值与预测值的均方误差作为预测结果的衡量标准,同时将BASFPA-BP与FPA-BP,BP,Elman这3种模型进行对比研究。实验结果表明,基于BASFPA-BP的软件可靠性预测模型在同类型模型中实现了较高的预测精度。Software reliability prediction is based on software reliability prediction model,which analyzes,evaluates and predicts software reliability and reliability-related measures.Using the failure data collected in software operation to predict the future software reliability.It has become an important means to evaluate software failure behavior and guarantee software reliability.BP neural network has been widely used in software reliability prediction because of its simple structure and few parameters.How-ever,the prediction accuracy of the software reliability prediction model built based on the traditional BP neural network cannot reach the expected target.Therefore,this paper proposes a software reliability prediction model based on BASFPA-BP.This model utilizes software failure data and utilizes BASFPA algorithm to optimize network weights and thresholds in the training process of BP neural network.Thus,the prediction accuracy of the model is improved.In this paper,three groups of public software failure data are selected,and the mean square error between the actual value and the predicted value is taken as the measurement standard of the predicted results.Meanwhile,BASFPA-BP is compared with FPA-BP,BP and Elman models.Experimental results show that the software reliability prediction model based on BASFPA-BP achieves high prediction accuracy in the same type of model.

关 键 词：软件可靠性预测模型 天牛须搜索算法 花朵授粉算法 BASFPA 

分 类 号：TP311[自动化与计算机技术—计算机软件与理论]