战败之后:是复仇对抗还是追随结盟?  

After Defeat:Revenge-Seeking or Bandwagoning?

作　　者：姜鹏 JIANG Peng(School of International Relations,Sun Yat-Sen University,Zhuhai,519000)

机构地区：[1]中山大学国际关系学院,珠海519000

出　　处：《国际安全研究》2023年第3期53-78,158,159,共28页Journal of International Security Studies

基　　金：2021年国家社会科学基金一般项目“两极竞争背景下新兴崛起国‘反遏制战略’研究”(项目编号:21BGJ068)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：区域主导权战争后,战败国的行为通常可以被抽象归并为四种类型:积极复仇、僵持对抗、平静隐退和追随结盟。古典现实主义外交政策理论认为,这种差异性选择取决于和平条约缔结过程中战胜国对战败国的宽宥程度。但本项研究发现,战败国行为选择差异化与和约缔结过程中战胜国宽宥程度之间并没有直接关系。结构性要素与情势性要素的叠加效应才是战败国行为选择差异化背后的激励因素。结构性要素体现为战败国自认为双方是否仍处于同一力量等级,情势性要素则体现为战败国周边是否还存在牵制其力量投送的其他战略敌手。在逻辑同一性框架下,上述两大变量不同组合的叠加效应,构成了战败国选择偏好呈现多元差异性的根源。从战胜国角度讲,厘清主导权战争后战败国行为选择背后的因果机制,对于规避与前战败国陷入周期性对抗与复仇泥沼、促成前战败国走向善意中立或追随和预判特定地区主导权战争后的大国关系走向均能提供有益的启示。After regional dominance wars,the behaviors of defeated states can be classified into four types:proactive revenge,stalemate confrontation,quiescent retreat and bandwagoning.Classical realist foreign policy theory argues that the discrepancies in their choices depend on the degree of leniency of the victorious state towards the defeated one in the process of negotiating a peace treaty.However,according to the findings of this study,the degree of leniency of the victorious state has no direct bearing on the differentiated behavioral choices on the part of the defeated one during the peace treaty negotiation process.The cumulative effect of the “structural factors” and the “circumstantial factors” is the incentive behind the differentiated behavioral choices of the defeated state.Specifically,the “structural factor” reflects whether the defeated state still considers itself to be at the same level of power with the victorious state,while the “circumstantial factor” reflects whether there are still other strategic adversaries around the defeated state that may contain its power projection.Within the framework of logical consistency,it is the diverse combinations of these two variables that have constituted the root cause for the plurality and diversity of the defeated state's choice preferences.From the perspective of the victorious state,clarifying the causal mechanism behind the behavioral choices of the defeated state after a war for regional dominance can provide beneficial enlightenment for avoiding falling into the quagmire of periodic confrontation and revenge on the defeated state,encouraging the defeated state to move towards goodwill neutrality or follow a policy of bandwagoning,and predicting the trend of major country relations after dominance wars in a specific region.

关 键 词：主导权战争 战败国 复仇战争 大国外交 战略竞争 

分 类 号：D815.5[政治法律—国际关系] E10[政治法律—政治学]