基于持续时间马尔科夫链的配电信息物理系统可靠性评估  

Reliability Assessment of Cyber-physical Distribution System Based on Continuous-time Markov Chains

作　　者：李鑫 汪隆君[1] LI Xin;WANG Longjun(School of Electrical Power Engineering,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510641,China)

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学电力学院,广东广州510641

出　　处：《广东电力》2023年第4期41-48,共8页Guangdong Electric Power

摘　　要：配电自动化对配电网供电可靠性的贡献程度有赖于通信方式的选择。为此,提出一种基于连续时间马尔科夫链的配电信息物理系统可靠性评估方法。建立层次化的系统可靠性模型,解析各层子系统的可靠性指标传递过程,利用灵敏度分析来比较不同通信接入技术的场景适用性。最后,以罗伊-比尔顿测试系统(Roy Billton test system,RBTS)母线5为算例对所提方法进行验证,并分析网络时延和误码对供电可靠性的影响。结果表明:基于无线公网的配电自动化,在合适的信噪比条件下可达到应用光纤或电力线载波通信方式的可靠性水平。The contribution of distribution automation to the reliability of power supply in the distribution network depends on the choice of communication technology.Therefore,this paper proposes a reliability assessment method for the distribution information physical system based on continuous-time Markov chains.It establishes a hierarchical system reliability model to analyze the transmission process of reliability indicators in each layer subsystem.By using sensitivity analysis,it compares the applicability of different communication access technologies in different scenarios.Finally,it takes RBTS bus 5 as an example to verify the proposed method,and analyzes the influence of cyber delay and bit error on power supply reliability.The results show that distribution automation based on wireless public network can achieve the same level of reliability as optical fiber or power line carrier communication technologies under appropriate signal-to-noise ratio conditions.

关 键 词：配电信息物理系统 可靠性评估 持续时间马尔科夫链 配电自动化 灵敏度分析 

分 类 号：TM764[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]