基于半偏减法集对势三角模糊数随机模拟方法的水资源承载力评价  

Water resources carrying capacity evaluation based on semipartial subtraction set pair potential triangular fuzzy number stochastic simulation method

作　　者：周铁军 李征 袁康 葛瑞敏 周戎星[1] ZHOU Tiejun;LI Zheng;YUAN Kang;GE Ruimin;ZHOU Rongxing(College of Civil Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China)

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院,安徽合肥230009

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2023年第2期33-41,51,共10页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U2240223、52109009);安徽省自然科学基金项目(2108085QE254)。

摘　　要：为深入挖掘三元联系数所蕴含的不确定性信息,基于三元半偏减法集对势并充分考虑各联系数分量间的相互转化,二次构造三元联系数,再依据三角模糊数和偏联系数理论确定联系数分量的取值区间,采用随机模拟法计算一定置信水平下的联系数值区间,由此构建基于半偏减法集对势三角模糊数随机模拟方法的水资源承载力评价模型(WRCC-SPSS),并应用于江淮丘陵区水资源承载力评价中,同时与现有常用方法进行对比分析。结果表明:2011—2018年江淮丘陵区域水资源承载力状态稳步提升,其中合肥市承载力水平最差;在二次构造联系数时,对不确定项作进一步划分,从而降低了联系数分量的不确定性,同时采用三角模糊数和随机模拟法确定联系数分量,可获得联系数的置信取值区间,所得结果更为可靠;实例应用结果与现有研究方法评价结果总体一致,WRCC-SPSS方法聚焦不确定性,物理内涵丰富,可实现承载力水平的动态评价。In order to investigate the uncertainty information conceived by the ternary connection number,the mutual transformation between the connection number components is fully considered in the reconstruction of the ternary connection number based on the ternary semipartial subtraction set pair potential,and the value intervals of the connection number components are obtained based on the triangular fuzzy number and partial connection number theory.In the meantime,the value of the connection number under a certain confidence level is determined by the random simulation method,according to which the water resources carrying capacity evaluation model based on semipartial subtraction set pair potential triangular fuzzy number stochastic simulation method(WRCC-SPSS)is constructed and then applied to the water resources carrying capacity evaluation in the Jianghuai hilly region,and is also compared and analyzed with the existing conventional methods.The results show that the water resources carrying capacity of the Jianghuai hilly region steadily enhanced from 2011 to 2018,and the carrying capacity of Hefei city performed the worst.The reconstruction of the connection number can reduce the uncertainty of the components,and the adoption of the triangular fuzzy number and stochastic simulation method can determine the confidence interval of the connection number,which are conducive to the reliability of the results.The results of the example application of WRCC-SPSS are generally consistent with the evaluation results of the existing research methods,because WRCC-SPSS is more focused on uncertainty,rich in physical content and applicable to the dynamic evaluation of the water resources carrying capacity.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 半偏减法集对势 三角模糊数 随机模拟 江淮丘陵区 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]