基于文献计量分析的交通量预测研究综述  

Review of Studies on Traffic Volume Prediction Based on Bibliometric Analysis

作　　者：裴玉龙[1] 何庆龄 侯琳 蔡小溪 PEI Yu-long;HE Qing-ling;HOU Lin;CAI Xiao-xi(School of Traffic and Transportation,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin Heilongjiang 150040,China)

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学交通学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2023年第2期171-181,共11页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2572022AW62);国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFB1600902)。

摘　　要：为了解交通量预测的研究现状和发展趋势,基于VOSviewer文献计量工具,以Web of Science核心合集和CNKI核心数据库近29 a(1993—2021年)有关交通量预测研究的文献为研究数据源,从发文年代、国家及地区、期刊来源和技术主题聚类分析了交通量预测领域研究态势。以“Traffic volume forecast”和“交通量预测”为检索主题,检索了范围内592篇有效文献,共涵盖6438个关键词。基于科学知识图谱对交通量预测领域文献进行了梳理分析。结果表明:交通量预测研究近29 a发文态势呈上升趋势,我国文献发表数量位居首位;Transportation Research Part C:Emerging Technologies不仅是文献发表数量最多的期刊,同时也是被引次数最多的期刊,《公路交通科技》是国内期刊中文献被引次数最多的期刊;交通量预测领域的研究主要是从公路交通需求发展预测、交通量预测方法模型、交通事件与实时监测等角度切入,重点围绕公路交通量预测、项目建设可行性研究、短时交通量预测方法模型构建与精度提升、交通事件监测和交通时空分布特征等主题开展研究;国外近年关于公路交通量与建设投资关系的研究、非典型条件下的交通量预测和有关雨雪等不利天气下的交通量预测研究文献发表数量呈显著上升趋势;国内在对四阶段法的改进、公路交通建设项目可行性研究和公路旅游交通量预测方面的研究相对丰富,但主要是从经济、人口和旅游产业等宏观角度出发,有必要进一步增加季节变化、个人出行特征和出行偏好等对公路旅游交通量预测的影响研究。In order to understand the current study status and development trend of traffic volume forecast,based on the VOSviewer bibliometric tool,taking the Web of Science core collection and the literatures related to traffic volume prediction studies in recent 29 years(1993—2021)in CNKI core database as the data sources,the study trends in the field of traffic volume forecasting are analyzed in terms of article age,country and region,journal source and technical topics.Taking the“traffic volume forecast and”“traffic volume forecasting”as the search topics,592 valid literatures covering 6438 keywords are searched.Based on the scientific knowledge mapping,the literatures in the field of traffic volume prediction are sorted out and analyzed.The result shows that(1)Traffic forecasting studies have been on the rise in the past 29 years,and the number of publications in China is the highest.(2)Transportation Research Part C:Emerging Technologies is not only the journal with the largest number of literatures,but also the journal with the largest number of citations,and Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development is the most cited journal among domestic journals.(3)The studies in the field of traffic volume forecasting are mainly conducted from the perspectives of highway traffic demand development prediction,traffic volume prediction method model,traffic events and real-time monitoring,focusing on the topics of highway traffic volume prediction,project construction feasibility study,short-time traffic volume prediction method modelling and accuracy improvement,traffic event monitoring and traffic spatial and temporal distribution characteristics.(4)The number of foreign study literatures on the relationship between highway traffic volume and construction investment,traffic volume prediction under atypical conditions and the studies on traffic volume prediction under adverse weather conditions such as rain and snows shown a significant increase in recent years.(5)Domestic studies on the improvement

关 键 词：交通工程 可视化分析 文献计量分析 公路交通量预测 短时交通量预测 

分 类 号：U491.113[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]