基于EW-IAHP的煤层底板突水危险性评价  

Evaluation of water inrush danger from coal seam floor based on EW-IAHP

作　　者：冯雁飞 吴鹏 苏慧 FENG Yan-fei;WU Peng;SU Hui(The Third Geological Brigade of Zhejiang Province,Jinhua 321000,China;Zhejiang Zhezhong Geological Engineering Survey Institute Co.,Ltd.,Jinhua 321000,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江省第三地质大队,浙江金华321000 [2]浙江省浙中地质工程勘察院有限公司,浙江金华321000

出　　处：《煤炭科技》2023年第2期1-6,共6页Coal Science & Technology Magazine

摘　　要：在目前的煤层底板突水评价应用中,选定影响突水的主要控制因素权重值对底板突水评价及预测有着重要作用。在传统的脆弱性指数法应用中,主控因素权重通常采用单一的权重确定方法,评价结果主观随意性强,无视数据本身的客观环境;或者客观性强,不能体现决策者对不同主控因素的重视程度,都会影响评价结果的全面、客观。考虑指标数据之间内在规律的客观赋权法和专家经验对主控指标考量的主观赋权法,采用改进的层次分析法(IAHP)与熵权法(EW)综合确定权重,与脆弱性指数法进行耦合,对煤层底板突水进行危险性评价。结果表明,潘家窑井田5号煤层底板突水危险区面积占比为25.73%,研究区断层较为发育,对煤层底板突水起控制作用。评价结果有效提高了预测精度,对潘家窑井田的安全生产有较好的指导作用。In the current application of water inrush evaluation of coal seam floor,the selection of the weight value of the main control factors affecting water inrush plays an important role in the evaluation and prediction of water inrush from the floor.However,in the application of traditional vulnerability index method,the weight of main control factors usually adopts a single weight determination method,which makes the evaluation results subjective and arbitrary,ignores the objective environment or objectivity of the data itself.Alternatively,strong objectivity and cannot reflect the decision-makers′attention to different main control factors,resulting in incomplete evaluation results.In view of this,this paper considers the objective weighting method of the internal law between the index data and the subjective weighting method of expert experience to consider the main control index.The improved analytic hierarchy process(IAHP)and entropy weight method(EW)are used to comprehensively determine the weight,coupled with the vulnerability index method,to evaluate the risk of water inrush from coal seam floor.The results show that the area of water inrush danger zone of No.5 coal seam floor in panjiayao mine field accounts for 25.73%.The faults in the study area are relatively developed and play a controlling role in water inrush of coal seam floor.The evaluation results better describe the water inrush from the coal seam floor and effectively improve the prediction accuracy.The evaluation results can be used to guide the safety production of panjiayao mine field.

关 键 词：脆弱性指数法 层次分析法 熵权法 底板突水危险性评价 

分 类 号：TD745[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]