基于信息吸引力和相关性的双网络舆情交互传播建模与仿真研究  

Interactive Propagation Mode and Simulation of Dual Network Public Opinions Based on Information Attraction and Relevance

作　　者：李思佳 张鹏 夏一雪 何巍 刘冬梅 Li Sijia;Zhang Peng;Xia Yixue;He Wei;Liu Dongmei(Research Center for Network Public Opinion Governance of CPPU,Langfang 065000;School of Science,North China University of Science and Technology,Tangshan 063210)

机构地区：[1]中国人民警察大学网络舆情治理研究中心,廊坊065000 [2]华北理工大学理学院,唐山063210

出　　处：《情报杂志》2023年第5期119-128,共10页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“智媒时代社交机器人识别与治理研究”(编号:22YJA860012);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“基于知识图谱的突发事件网民情绪风险感知与引导机制研究”(编号:21YJC860009);河北省统计科学研究计划项目“突发事件网络舆论形成与演化建模仿真研究”(编号:2021HL17);警察大学科研重点专项课题“人工智能背景下网络虚假信息识别与治理对策研究”(编号:ZDZX202201)的研究成果。

摘　　要：[研究目的]针对突发事件中多种网络舆情信息交互传播的现象,构建双网络舆情信息交互传播SE^(2)I^(2)R^(2)模型并仿真分析其传播演化趋势及影响因素,为及时高效开展多网络舆情的引导干预工作提供有益指导。[研究方法]在传染病SEIR模型的基础上,通过量化舆情信息的吸引力和相关性因素,构建复杂网络上的双网络舆情信息交互传播SE^(2)I^(2)R^(2)模型,并在真实社交网络Facebook数据集上进行仿真分析,揭示双网络舆情交互传播的演化规律。[研究结论]仿真结果表明,当舆情信息相互冲突(强负相关)时,有优先权的舆情信息具有明显的传播优势;当舆情信息呈正相关时,舆情传播个体之间持续发生着状态转移,舆情传播演化至稳态的时间(弛豫时间)显著延长,且人群接纳程度显著提升;当舆情信息吸引力差距较大时,强势舆情信息对弱势舆情信息的传播产生较显著的抑制作用。[Research purpose]In order to identify the interactive propagation rules of the multiple network public opinion information(POI)in major emergencies,and make guidance and intervention decisions more timely and efficiently,a SE^(2)I^(2)R^(2)model for the interactive propagation of the dual POI is proposed to simulate the evolution trends and analyze the influence factors.[Research method]Based on the SEIR model,a SE^(2)I^(2)R^(2)model of interactive propagation on complex networks is proposed through quantifying the attraction and relevance of the dual POIs.Numerical simulations are carried out on the real social network(i.e.the Facebook dataset)to reveal the interactive propagation rules.[Research conclusion]Results of the simulations show that,the POI with priority has obvious propagation advantages when the dual POIs are conflicting with each other,whereas state transitions continually occur between individuals in the propagation of the dual POI with a better consistency,which significantly prolongs the relaxation time and improves the acceptance of the dual POIs in the netizens.When there is a large gap in the attraction of the dual POIs,the strong POI suppresses the propagation of the weak POI to a great extent.Finally,we provide suggestions for the government to make guidance and intervention decisions.

关 键 词：网络舆情 舆情信息 信息交互 SE^(2)I^(2)R^(2)模型 交互传播 信息吸引力 信息相关性 

分 类 号：TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术] G202[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]