能源价格与房地产市场波动--来自中国地级市层面的经验证据  

Energy Price Fluctuation and Real Estate Market Risk Prevention:Evidence at the Prefecture-level City Level in China

作　　者：王振霞[1] 闫冰倩 王蕾[2] WANG Zhenxia;YAN Bingqian;Wang Lei(National Academy of Economic Strategy,CASS;Institute of Industrial Economics,CASS)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院,北京100006 [2]中国社会科学院工业经济研究所,北京100006

出　　处：《金融研究》2023年第2期1-20,共20页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71903195)的资助

摘　　要：能源价格波动对宏观经济的冲击是学术界持续关注的热点问题,但鲜有文献关注到能源价格波动对房价的影响及其可能产生的金融风险。本文基于中国地级及以上城市数据,实证检验了能源价格波动对国内房地产市场价格波动的影响,并分析其影响机制和传导途径。结果表明,能源价格变化将显著影响国内房地产价格波动,且在大城市和超大城市表现得更加明显。能源价格一方面通过利率水平变化影响购房需求,另一方面通过住房建设成本影响房地产市场供给,从而导致房价波动。该结论经过一系列稳健性检验,结果依然成立。同时,这一影响具有非对称性,即能源价格上涨会导致房价波动加剧,但能源价格下跌的影响并不显著。本文不仅为房价形成机制提供新的视角,也丰富了能源与金融市场间相互联系的研究。“Coordinating development and security[and]preventing and dissolving financial risks”is an important part of China's economic development and deepening reforms.Risks in the real estate market,especially abnormal fluctuations in real estate prices,the resulting economic bubbles,and the phenomenon of“deviation from the real to the virtual,”are key issues that threaten the country's economic and financial security.A large amount of domestic and foreign literature studies the causes of the formation and fluctuation of real estate prices from the perspectives of land finance,monetary policy,population,and urbanization.In addition,the literature proposes the principles and measures of real estate market price regulation based on predicting real estate price trends.However,the literature ignores the possibly significant impact of energy price fluctuations on real estate price fluctuations.Because energy is a necessary input for modern production and modern life,the safety of its storage,extraction,and transportation are hot issues that attract global attention.In the 1970s,with the outbreak of shocks such as the“oil crisis,”abnormal fluctuations in energy prices led to stagnant growth and increased unemployment in major global economies that were accompanied by severe inflation and even triggered economic crises.Academics and policymakers began to realize that there might be important correlations between energy price fluctuations,macroeconomics,and financial markets.After 2000,the impact of energy price fluctuations on macroeconomic growth and inflation levels weakened,and the relationship between energy prices and macroeconomic variables changed significantly.In 2008,the outbreak of the global financial crisis provided a new perspective from which to study the relationship between energy prices and financial markets.Some studies note that the rapid rise in energy prices is an important reason for the bursting of the real estate bubble,the violent fluctuation of asset market prices,and the evolution of the

关 键 词：能源价格 房价 金融风险 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济] F426.2F764.1