人民币国际化及其影响因素:基于汇率联动视角  

RMB Internationalization and Its Influencing Factors——From the Perspective of Exchange Rate Linkage

作　　者：徐扬[1] 汤珂 谢丹夏 Xu Yang;Tang Ke;Xie Danxia(School of Econonics and Mangement,Beihang University;Institute of Economics,School of Social Sciences,Tsinghua University)

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院 [2]清华大学社会科学学院经济学研究所

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2023年第3期61-73,共13页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“汇率定价的地缘政治因素研究”(72001013);国家自然科学基金面上项目“大宗商品定价的新风险因子”(71973075);国家自然科学基金面上项目“数字平台动态对社会福利与金融稳定的影响”(71973076);国家自然科学基金重大项目“数字经济的博率论基础”(72192802)资助。

摘　　要：本文在经典货币锚模型中引入时间趋势项,从汇率联动视角度量全球人民币国际化进程发现:人民币国际化的阶段性特征明显。第一,2005-2015年人民币与全球货币间无显著联动关系,人民币的计价职能尚未显现。第二,以2015年“8·11”汇改为起始点,随着人民币汇率报价机制逐步市场化,人民币与各国货币的联动程度随时间显著增强。第三,2018年3月中美贸易摩擦以后,各国货币与人民币出现脱钩趋势,其中,与我国贸易顺差越大的国家,其货币与人民币联动水平下降越显著。从地域角度来看,人民币与中南美洲货币联动水平最高,与非洲各国货币联动水平增速最快。此外,本文还发现对外贸易、对外直接投资和货币发行国的汇率制度是影响人民币国际化进程的重要因素,而地理位置邻近已不是现阶段支撑人民币国际化的主要原因。Incorporating a time trend into the classic “currency anchor” model, this paper explores the process of RMB internationalization from the perspective of exchange rate linkage. Empirical analysis shows that the three-stage characteristics of RMB internationalization could be summarized as: firstly, from 2005 to 2015, there was no significant change in the linkage between the RMB and global currencies. Secondly, starting from the 8.11 Exchange Rate Reform in 2015, as the RMB exchange rate regime became more market-oriented, the degree of the linkage between RMB and other currencies increased significantly over time. Thirdly, since the start of China US Trade Friction in March 2018, there has been a trend of decoupling between the currencies and RMB. Specifically, the countries with larger trade surpluses with China has experienced a more significant decline in the linkage. In terms of the geographic distribution of RMB internationalization, RMB has the highest level of linkage with the currencies of Central and South America, and the fastest growth rate of linkage with the currencies of African countries. In addition, this paper also finds that foreign trade, foreign direct investment and the exchange rate arrangement adopted by the counterparty country are important factors affecting the process of RMB internationalization.

关 键 词：人民币国际化 汇率联动 贸易摩擦 汇率制度 汇率改革 

分 类 号：F821[经济管理—财政学] F822