基于DEMATEL的基本养老保险全国统筹影响因素研究  

Influencing Factors of the National Coordination ofBasic Pension Insurance Based on DEMATEL

作　　者：方云霞 李红艳[1] 朱敏 FANG Yunxia;LI Hongyan;ZH∪Min(School of Management,Shanghai University of Engineering Science,Shanghai 201620)

机构地区：[1]上海工程技术大学管理学院,上海201620

出　　处：《昆明理工大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第2期175-183,共9页Journal of Kunming University of Science and Technology(Natural Science)

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(16YJCZH043);上海市教育系统工会理论研究委托研究课题(2022GHL10);国家民委民族研究项目(2021-GMD-064)。

摘　　要：分析基本养老保险全国统筹影响因素,有利于增强养老保险的公平与效率,适应流动性,促进其可持续发展.以冯·贝塔朗菲的系统论思想为基础,根据整体性、关联性和环境适应性特征,提炼出中央与地方两个层面基本养老保险全国统筹的17个影响因素,并运用DEMATEL方法定量分析各影响因素之间的作用关系,识别重要的影响因素.地方人口老龄化水平、地方经济社会发展水平、全国基本养老保险政策等因素对其他因素的影响程度较高,为我国基本养老保险全国统筹的主要型影响因素.各地方养老保险结余水平、各地方养老保险给付水平和各地方养老基金管理运营等为重要因素,但易受其他因素影响,不具有稳定性,属于核心关键影响因素.从中央和地方两个层面来说,当前各地方影响因素具有重要地位和发挥关键作用.因此,建议基本养老保险统筹协调各影响因素,发挥好各地方的积极作用,尽快全面做实县市、省级统筹,逐步实现全国统筹.Analyzing the influencing factos of nat ional coordination of basic pension insurance is conducive to enhancing the fairness and fficiency of endow ment insurance,adapting to mobility,and promoting its sustai mable development.Based on the system theory thought of Ludwig Von Bertalanffy,this paper extracts 17 influencing factors of national coordination of basic pension insurance at the central and local levels according to the characteristics of integrity,relevance and environmental adaptability,and uses the DEMATEL method to quantify analyze the relationship between the influencing factors and identify important influencing factors.The aging level of the local population,the level of local economic and social development,and the national basic endowment insurance:policy have a relatively high degree of influence on other factors,and are the main influencing factors for the national coordination of my country's basic pension insurance.The balance level of local pension insurance,the payment level of local pension insurance,and the management and operation of local pension funds are important factors,but they are easily affected by other factors and are not stable.From both the central and local levels,the curent local influencing factors play an important role and play a key role.Therefore,it is suggested that the bas ic pension insurance plans to coordinate various influencing factors,gives full play to the positive role of various localities,and gradually increases to national coordination on the basis of solid county,city,and provincial overall planning.

关 键 词：基本养老保险 保险统筹 DEMATEL方法 地方与中央统筹 影响因素 

分 类 号：F842.67[经济管理—保险]