基于贝叶斯理论的危险源评估和分析方法研究  

Research on Assessment and Analysis Methods of Hazard Sources Based on Bayesian Theory

作　　者：蒋骏贤 JIANG Junxian(TECNIC Branch,China Southern Airlines,Guangzhou 510470,Guangdong,China)

机构地区：[1]中国南方航空股份有限公司工程技术分公司(机务工程部),广东广州510470

出　　处：《民航学报》2023年第2期73-78,共6页Journal of Civil Aviation

摘　　要：风险管理是民航安全研究的核心,对已知危险源进行科学的评估和分析是风险管理中的关键问题。本文从分析安全管理体系(SMS)中的风险管理过程出发,提出基于贝叶斯理论的危险源评估和分析方法,该方法保留传统风险矩阵分析法优点的同时实现了对风险控制措施的评估和危险源风险事件的多维度分析。随后,以牵引飞机过程的危险源和风险控制为例,通过风险矩阵分析法进行初步分析并提出风险控制措施,使用贝叶斯理论对风险控制措施进行评估并从人员疲劳这一维度进一步剖析风险控制措施的效果。结果表明,此方法可以实现对风险控制措施的闭环控制,并提高传统风险控制方法的有效性。Risk management is the core of civil aviation safety research. To evaluate and analyze the hazards scientifically is the key issue in risk management. Starting from analysis of the risk management process in safety management system(SMS), this paper proposes an assessment and analysis method of hazard sources based on Bayesian theory. This method retains the advantages of risk matrix and realizes the evaluation of risk control measures and multi-dimensional analysis of hidden dangers of hazard sources. Taking the process of towing aircraft as an example, the risk matrix analysis method is used to conduct preliminary analysis and propose risk control measures, and Bayesian theory is used to evaluate risk control measures and analyze the effect of risk control measures from the dimension of personnel fatigue. The results show that this method can achieve closedloop control of risk control measures and improve the effectiveness of traditional risk control methods.

关 键 词：贝叶斯理论 安全管理体系 危险源 风险矩阵 牵引飞机 

分 类 号：U8[交通运输工程]