我国货币政策"量""价"转换过程中最优货币政策反应机制研究  

Research on the Optimal Monetary Policy Response Mechanism in the Process of"Quantity"and"Price"Conversion of China's Monetary Policy

作　　者：陈琼 付一婷 张都 CHEN Qiong;FU Yi-ting;ZHANG Du(School of Economics and Statistics,Guangzhou University,Guangzhou 510006,China)

机构地区：[1]广州大学经济与统计学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2023年第2期349-362,共14页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71873042,72073040)。

摘　　要：本文在中央银行福利损失函数中引入区制转移特征,分别推导出数量目标下以及价格目标下最优货币政策反应函数,并对比了各自的区制特征与政策目标选择倾向;随后本文利用TVP-FAVAR模型验证了不同时期下货币政策在调控宏观经济方面的效果.计算结果表明:中央银行的货币供给量调控有着明显的"促增长"倾向,而利率调控则具有"稳增长"的目标,通胀缺口并不是我国货币政策调控的重点;央行仅在经济受到严重冲击时才会改变数量规则反应函数.中央银行通过利率可以更加灵活的对较小的经济波动进行反应,进而达到逆周期调控的目的.货币供给量调控适合于对宏观经济进行长期的引导与调控,而利率调控则可以作为短期调控中更"主动"、更"积极"的有效手段.In this paper,we introduce the regional regime transfer feature into the welfare loss function of the central bank,derive the optimal monetary policy response functions under the quantity target and the price target respectively,and compare the respective regional characteristics and the policy target selection tendency.Then,we use TVP-favar model to verify the effect of monetary policy on macroeconomic regulation in different periods The central bank's money supply regulation has an obvious tendency of"promoting growth",while the interest rate regulation has the goal of"stable growth".Infation gap is not the focus of China's monetary policy;the central bank will change the response function of quantitative rules only when the economy is seriously impacted.Through the interest rate,the central bank can be more flexible to respond to small economic fuctuations,and then achieve the purpose of counter cyclical regulation.The regulation of money supply is suitable for the long-term guidance and regulation of macro-economy,while the interest rate control can be used as an effective means of"active"and"positive"in short-term regulation.

关 键 词：最优货币政策规则 货币供给量 利率 经济增长 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学] O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]