我国城市化对房价的影响研究——基于半参数空间面板数据滞后模型  

Research on the Impact of Urbanization on Housing Price Based on Semi-Parametric Spatial Panel Data Lag Model

作　　者：黄元斌 HUANG Yuan-bin(School of Economics,Sichuan University of Science&Engineering,Yibin 644000,China)

机构地区：[1]四川轻化工大学经济学院,四川宜宾644000

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2023年第3期174-181,共8页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“资本管制措施在东亚新兴经济体跨境资本流出入中的应用及效果研究”(21YJC790028);四川省社会科学规划重大项目“城乡融合的政策效应研究”(SC19EZD036)。

摘　　要：基于2000-2019年我国其中31个省、自治区和直辖市省际空间面板数据,建立固定效应空间面板滞后模型和半参数空间面板数据滞后模型,实证考察了城市化、城乡收入差距、人均收入等因素对房价的影响.研究结果表明:房价存在正的空间溢出性.城乡收入差距、人均收入和非农产业的发展与房价一般是正相关的.但固定效应空间面板滞后模型中城市化对房价的影响不显著.通过应用半参数空间面板滞后模型研究表明我国城市化对房价影响存在着拐点,房价是先是随着城市化率的提高而下降,城市化率达到一定程度时,房价随着城市化率的提高而上升.原因可能在于土地供给的减少和土地开发成本的提高等方面.但当期房价对下一期的房价没有显著的影响,说明不能建立动态空间面板滞后模型.根据研究结果,从通过缩小城乡差距,增加土地供应,降低土地开发成本等方面降低房价提出了对策建议.Based on the inter-provincial spatial panel data of 31 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities from 2000 to 2019,a fixed-effect spatial panel lag model and a semi-parametric spatial panel lag model were established to empirically investigate the impact of urbanization,urban-rural income gap,per capita income and other factors on housing prices.The results show that the housing price has a positive spatial spillover.The urban-rural income gap,per capita income and the development of non-agricultural industries are generally positively correlated with housing prices.However,the effect of urbanization on housing price is not significant in the fixed-effect spatial panel lag model.Through the application of the semi-parameter space panel lag model,it is shown that there is an infection point in the infuence of urbanization on the housing price.The housing price falls first with the increase of urbanization rate;when the urbanization rate reaches a certain degree,housing price rises along with the increase of urbanization rate.The reason may lie in the decrease of land supply and the increase of land development cost.However,the current housing price has no significant impact on the housing price of the next period,indicating that the dynamic spatial panel lag model cannot be established.According to the results of the study,some suggestions are put forward to reduce the housing price by narrowing the gap between urban and rural areas,increasing land supply and reducing the cost of land development.

关 键 词：城市化 房价 影响 半参数空间面板滞后模型 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济] F299.21