CMIP6模式对青藏高原极端气温指数模拟能力评估及预估  

Evaluation and Projection of Extreme Temperature Indices over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau by CMIP6 Models

作　　者：李宛鸿 徐影[2] LI Wanhong;XU Ying(Chongqing Climate Center,Chongqing 401147,China;National Climate Center,Laboratory for Climate Studies,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆市气候中心,重庆401147 [2]国家气候中心,中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《高原气象》2023年第2期305-319,共15页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2020YFA0608201,2017YFA0605004,2017YFA0603703);国家自然科学基金项目(41690141)。

摘　　要：利用第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)28个全球气候模式模拟的历史和多SSP排放情景下的模拟结果以及国家气候中心制作的CN05.1格点化的观测数据,在评估28个全球气候模式对青藏高原极端气温相关指数模拟效果的基础上,预估了多个SSP情景下青藏高原未来极端气温指数的变化趋势。评估结果表明多模式集合平均模拟结果更稳定,且能模拟出极端气温指数的时间分布以及空间分布特征,但与观测相比,不同指数存在不同偏差。预估结果表明,相对于1995-2014年,青藏高原上日最高气温最高值(TXx)、日最低气温最低值(TNn)、暖昼指数(TX90p)未来呈上升趋势,霜冻日数(FD)、冰冻日数(ID)、冷夜指数(TN10p)呈减少趋势,其中高原极端低温比极端高温增温明显,暖昼指数在高原西南部增加明显,霜冻日数、冰冻日数、冷夜指数在高原东南部减少明显。SSP1-1.9情景下,极端气温指数在21世纪的变化幅度较小,随着辐射强迫增大,指数的变化趋势也增大。SSP1-2.6情景下,2030年前中国实现碳达峰时,青藏高原地区TXx、TNn、TX90p增长分别不超过1.12℃、0.84℃、8.4%,FD、ID、TN10p减少分别不超过9.1天、9.7天、2.6%;2060年前中国实现碳中和时,青藏高原地区TXx、TNn、TX90p增长分别不超过1.72℃、1.48℃、15%,FD、ID、TN10p减少分别不超过15.6天、17天、3.4%。Using historical and SSP emission scenarios simulation results from 28 global climate models in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6)and CN05.1 grid observation data produced by the National Climate Center,based on the evaluation of 28 global climate models over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau(TP)extreme temperature indices simulation effect,the trend of the future extreme temperature indices of the QXP under multiple greenhouse gas emission scenarios is predicted.The evaluation results show that the multimodel ensemble average simulation results are more stable and can simulate the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of extreme temperature indices,but compared with observations,different indices have different deviations.The estimated results show that,relative to 1995-2014,annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature(TXx),annual minimum value of daily minimum temperature(TNn),and warm days(TX90p)over the QXP will increase in the future,with the number of frost days(FD),icing days(ID),and cold days(TN10p)showed a decreasing trend.TNn increased significantly compared with TXx over the QXP.TX90p increased significantly in the southwest of the plateau,while the FD,ID,and TN10p decreased significantly in the southeast of the plateau.Under the SSP1-1.9 scenario,the extreme temperature index has a small change in the 21st century.As the radiative forcing increases,the frequency of the index also increases.Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario,when China achieves its carbon peak before 2030,the growth of TXx,TNn,and TX90p over the QXP will not exceed 1.12℃,0.84℃,and 8.4%,respectively,and the reduction of FD,ID,and TN10p will not exceed 9.1 days,9.7 days and 2.6%,respectively.When China achieves carbon neutrality before 2060,the increase of TXx,TNn,and TX90p over the TP will not exceed 1.72℃,1.48℃,and 15%,respectively,and the decrease of FD,ID,and TN10p will not exceed 15.6 days,17Days,3.4%,respectively.

关 键 词：青藏高原 CMIP6 极端气温指数 预估 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]