基于MUAM模拟的20世纪末12月平流层十年际变化  

Stratospheric Decadal Changes Simulated with the MUAM duringDecembers at the End of the 20th Century

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作  者:刘仁强[1] 谢济鸿 黎颖 LIU Renqiang;XIE Jihong;LI Ying(Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education(KLME)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD),Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,Jiangsu,China;Hanzhong Meteorological Administration,Hanzhong 723000,Shaanxi,China)

机构地区:[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,江苏南京210044 [2]汉中市气象局,陕西汉中723000

出  处:《高原气象》2023年第2期448-458,共11页Plateau Meteorology

基  金:广东省重点领域研发计划项目(2020B1111200001);国家自然科学基金项目(41575040)。

摘  要:利用中高层大气模式(MUAM)研究20世纪末12月平流层气候态的十年际变化,基于一组敏感性试验评估下边界条件、二氧化碳及臭氧浓度变化对平流层温度变化的分别影响,着重探讨了南北极局部增暖的机制差异。结果表明,相较于20世纪80年代,90年代12月北极中上平流层西风减速,中低层增温,这主要与下边界条件变化导致行星1波的上传显著增强(2波削弱)有关。同一时期,南极平流层低层西风加速温度降低,中上层东风减速温度升高,这主要与南极低平流层显著的臭氧损耗有关;下边界条件变化和中层局地的臭氧增加也有一定的贡献,但低层臭氧损耗所诱导的极涡加速使得波传播环境或条件有利于1~2波上传增强(1波主导)至更高高度可能是最终导致中上层增暖的主要原因。Stratospheric climate change is an important part of global change.Observational and modeling studies disclosed that the stratosphere had shown in general a cooling trend during around the last 20 years of the 20th century.Ozone depletion is believed to have caused the preponderance of the cooling in the lower stratosphere(around 15~25 km altitude);both ozone depletion and increases in greenhouse gases are believed to have driven the cooling in the middle and upper stratosphere(around 25~50 km altitude).Stratospheric cooling was comparably consistent throughout the year at the tropical latitudes.However,the temperature trends in the polar stratosphere shown a characteristic of annual cycle,which is probably related to the severe polar ozone depletion during springs and the significant changes of the Brewer-Dobson circulation during winters.Anomalously,during around the Decembers from 1980 to 2000,a warming trend occurred both in the middle and upper layers of the Antarctic stratosphere and almost in the whole layer of the Arctic stratosphere.In this paper,we utilized the Middle and Upper Atmosphere Model(MUAM)to investigate the decadal changes between stratospheric climatic states during Decembers at the end of the 20th century.The impacts of changes in lower boundary condition(LBC),carbon dioxide and ozone concentrations on stratospheric temperature trends are assessed,respectively,based on a set of sensitivity experiments,while the mechanism differences between the local warming in the Antarctic and Arctic stratosphere are preferentially discussed.The results obtained show that during the Decembers of 1990s(relative to those of 1980s),the westerly in the Arctic mid-to-upper stratosphere decelerates and the temperature in the mid-to-lower layers increases.This is mainly attributable to the significant strengthening(weakening)of the upward propagation of stationary planetary wave with zonal wavenumber 1(2)that resulted from the change in LBC.Meanwhile,in the Antarctic stratosphere,the westerly(easterly)in the low

关 键 词:平流层模拟 十年际变化 臭氧损耗 行星波 

分 类 号:P435.2[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]

 

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