加密自动站数据在睿图-中亚数值模式中的应用  

Application of Encrypted Automatic Weather Station Data in RMAPS-CA Numerical Model

作　　者：张鑫宇 范水勇 张舒婷 全继萍 程志刚 ZHANG Xinyu;FAN Shuiyong;ZHANG Shuting;QUAN Jiping;CHENG Zhigang(Institute Of Urban Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100089,China)

机构地区：[1]北京城市气象研究院,北京100089

出　　处：《高原气象》2023年第2期459-471,共13页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1507105)。

摘　　要：利用睿图-中亚区域数值预报系统(Rapid-refresh Multi-scale Analysis and Prediction System-Central Asia,RMAPS-CA)以及不同的地面气象自动站观测资料进行同化试验,并将试验结果与实况进行对比,旨在通过加密自动站的同化应用来提高RMAPS-CA对于地面要素的预报性能。通过2020年7月为期15天的批量试验结果表明:在保证数据质量的前提下,相比仅同化国家级自动站而言,同化加密自动站后可以有效提高地面温度、湿度和风速的预报准确性。在使用加密自动站的基础上,将RMAPS-CA的地面资料同化方案由原方案改为更新方案后可以降低地面温度预报和风速预报的均方根误差,提升加密自动站的同化应用效果。综上所述,加密自动站的合理使用可以改善RMAPS-CA的预报性能,而同化更新方案可以进一步提高加密自动站观测资料对于数值预报系统的贡献。The regional numerical forecast system named Rapid-refresh Multi-scale Analysis and Prediction System-Central Asia(RMAPS-CA)is the numerical weather forecast business system of Xinjiang Meteorological Bureau,which provides support for the meteorological forecast and early warning service of Xinjiang province,its predictive performance is closely related to daily travel safety and meteorological guarantee of various industries.Therefore,the different automatic weather station observations are separately added to the RMAPS-CA to carry out a three-dimensional variational assimilation experiment,then compared the results of experiments with the actual situation.More than 8000 regional automatic weather stations(including nearly 600 stations in Xinjiang)and more than 2400 national automatic weather stations that have been included in the routine assessment objectives of China Meteorological Administration are selected as encryption automatic stations.Their application effect in regional numerical prediction system(RMAPS-CA)is analyzed.The purpose is to further improve the assimilation efficiency of encrypted automatic station by improving the quality and assimilation method of encrypted automatic station,so as to improve the contribution of encrypted automatic station observation to the prediction performance of RMAPS-CA service system.At the same time,the different assimilation schemes are used to carry out sensitivity tests,the updated assimilation scheme proposed by Zhang X Y(2021)is used for assimilation test,then the effects of the updated assimilation scheme and the original scheme on ground element prediction are compared and analyzed in order to analyze the contribution of updated assimilation scheme to numerical prediction performance.Through the results of a single case in July 2020 and a batch test of 15 days in July 2020 show that on the premise of ensuring the data quality,compared with only assimilating the national automatic weather station data,assimilating the encrypted automatic weather station data

关 键 词：区域数值模式 资料同化 加密自动站 同化方案更新 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]