太行山食管癌高发区农村居民高血压风险预测模型构建  

Construction of hypertension risk prediction model for rural residents with high esophageal cancer in Taihang Mountain

作　　者：侯强 王英[2] 李慕帆 杨皓颖 景禹鑫 杨建洲 HOU Qiang;WANG Ying;LI Mu-fan;YANG Hao-ying;JING Yu-xin;YANG Jian-zhou(Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine,Changzhi Medical College,Changzhi,Shanxi 046000,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]长治医学院公共卫生与预防医学系,山西长治046000 [2]山西医科大学公共卫生学院

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2023年第6期1133-1138,共6页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：长治医学院2019年学术技术带头人项目(XSQ201902)。

摘　　要：目的剖析太行山食管癌高发区山西平顺农村居民高血压患病的影响因素,为制订防治对策提供根据。方法通过随机整群抽样方法,抽取调查对象开展问卷调查和体格检查;利用非条件logistic回归模型分析高血压影响因素并建立风险预测模型。结果调查问卷发放1121份,有效966(86.1%)份。调查对象女性503名(52.1%),检出336人(粗率34.8%,标化率33.7%)患高血压。分析显示,BMI(OR=1.068,95%CI:1.025~1.112)、习惯性饮茶(OR=1.815,95%CI:1.290~2.555)、喜食腌制食品(OR=1.638,95%CI:1.199~2.239)、被动吸烟(OR=1.535,95%CI:1.135~2.076)、进食较快(OR=1.518,95%CI:1.120~2.058)、高血压家族史(OR=4.197,95%CI:3.080~5.718)、高脂饮食(OR=2.117,95%CI:1.556~2.880)均是高血压患病的危险因素,喜食辣椒(OR=0.621,95%CI:0.425~0.908)则是保护因素;模型检验中C=0.741(95%CI:0.709~0.773)、AUC=0.762(95%CI:0.730~0.793),当Youden指数为0.409时,灵敏度为69.0%,特异度为71.9%,此时模型的判别一致性最高。结论该地区高血压患病率较高,风险预测模型效能较好,具备临床参考价值。Objective To analyze the influencing factors of hypertension in rural residents of Shanxi Pingshun in the high incidence of esophageal cancer and to provide a basis for formulating countermeasures for prevention and treatment.Methods Questionnaires and physical examinations were conducted by random whole-group sampling method,and unconditional logistic regression models were used to analyze hypertension’s influencing factors and establish a risk prediction line graph model.Results 1121 questionnaires were distributed and 966(86.1%)were valid.The survey was administered to 503(52.1%)females,and 336(crude rate 34.8%,standardized rate 33.7%)were detected to have hypertension.Analysis showed that BMI(OR=1.068,95%CI:1.025-1.112),habitual tea consumption(OR=1.815,95%CI:1.290-2.555),preference for pickled foods(OR=1.638,95%CI:1.199-2.239),passive smoking(OR=1.535,95%CI:1.135-2.076),faster eating(OR=1.518,95%CI:1.120-2.058),family history of hypertension(OR=4.197,95%CI:3.080-5.718),and high-fat diet(OR=2.117,95%CI:1.556-2.880)were all significant risk factors for the development of hypertension,while preference for chilies(OR=0.621,95%CI:0.425-0.908)was a protective factor,C=0.741(95%CI:0.709-0.773)and AUC=0.762(95%CI:0.730-0.793)in the model test,when Youden index was 0.409,the sensitivity was 69.0%and the specificity was 71.9%when the model had the highest discriminatory agreement.Conclusion The prevalence of hypertension in this region is high,and the risk prediction model has good efficacy and clinical reference value.

关 键 词：高血压 影响因素 预测模型 农村 太行山高发区 

分 类 号：R544.1[医药卫生—心血管疾病]